Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at WSH?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 24, 2026

COL

50-80

PregameMon, 6:45 PM EDTMLB.TV

WSH

61-71

ATS/WSH -1.5O/U/8ML/WSH-192

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

2-8

WSH -0.6 vs COL -1.8 margin

WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

WSH no-vig %

62.8%

open 63.1% · -0.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Ryan Feltner

SP · #18

5-7

W-L

5.97

ERA

1.53

WHIP

92.0

Last 3 starts

vsLADL(5-7)5.0 IP7 ER3 K

@ARIW(5-6)5.0 IP2 ER2 K

@STLL(4-6)5.1 IP3 ER2 K

Home starter

Cade Cavalli

SP · #24

11-5

W-L

3.22

ERA

1.22

WHIP

162

142.2

Last 3 starts

@TEXW(11-5)6.0 IP0 ER11 K

vsCHCW(10-5)8.0 IP0 ER10 K

vsCINW(9-5)6.0 IP3 ER8 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money+157 / -192

Model edge

Win prob39% / 62%

LeanHome · 12pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesWSH leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Place a bet

Take WSH on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-192Bet WSH ML↗-192Bet WSH ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

WSH vs COL.

WSH has dropped 4 straight; COL is 3-7 over its last 10.

61.5%

model · WSH win prob

Recent form

WSH2–8-0.6
COL3–7-1.8

Situational

WSH1d restB2B
COL1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. WSH has 9 straight road games; COL has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp

Players to watch

Cade CavalliWSH
6.8strikeouts · ±3.6
Cade Cavalli · 6.8 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5strikeouts · ±2.6
Kyle Freeland · 4.5 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 4.3.
Kyle FreelandCOL
3.5earned runs · ±2.0
Kyle Freeland · 3.5 ER · last-10 3.4 vs season 3.7.

Head-to-head · 2-1 · last 3

WSH is 2-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-20WSH @ COL7–3
2026-07-21WSH @ COL7–8
2026-07-22WSH @ COL8–0

Line move

open -194→-192flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
61.2%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.4%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.26

CLV pp

Open price

+159

Close price

+157

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

37.2%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at WSH?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

COL

no live price

WSH

no live price

Book	COL	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	+157	-192	+1.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
6.8± 3.6high
Jackson KentWSH
4.7± 2.1low
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.6high

Hits

Keibert RuizWSH
1.2± 1.1high
Willi CastroCOL
1.0± 0.7high
Cole CarriggCOL
0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
1.6± 1.5high
Keibert RuizWSH
1.6± 1.6high
Mickey MoniakCOL
1.5± 2.4high

RBIs

Zac VeenCOL
0.8± 1.1low
Brett SullivanCOL
0.7± 1.2high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jackson KentWSH
3.7± 1.6low
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.6± 2.6medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
3.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

WSH

.738

OPS

.719

▶

.754

.322

OBP

.318

.324

4.75

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.17

5.54

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.68

1.52

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.39

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.8

The One modelEdge

Mon, Aug 24

COL

Rockies

56-94

vs61.5%WSH

WSH★

Nationals

72-78

COL 38.5%win prob61.5% WSH

WSH 1465 · COL 1410Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take WSH on the model side.

WSH vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.