Recent form
6-4
NYY +1.0 vs HOU -1.6 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Houston Astros at New York Yankees
HOU
HOU
65-66
PregameTue, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
NYY
NYY
74-56
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
E
Ethan Pecko
SP · #70
0-0
W-L
4.91
ERA
1.64
WHIP
4
K
3.2
IP
Last 1 starts
vsLAA-3.2 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Will Warren
SP · #29
8-6
W-L
4.43
ERA
1.40
WHIP
122
K
122.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@BAL-4.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsSEA-4.0 IP5 ER3 K
vsSTLL(8-6)5.1 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYY lead series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs HOU.
NYY is 6-4 recently; HOU is 4-6.
59.4%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY6–4+1.0
- HOU4–6-1.6
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- HOU2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; HOU has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Cam Schlittler · 7.4 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 7.1.
- Peter LambertHOU5.5strikeouts · ±2.4
Peter Lambert · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
- Will WarrenNYY4.2strikeouts · ±2.4
Will Warren · 4.2 K · last-10 3.8 vs season 4.9.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.5%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
57.2%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.8%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.31 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs HOU.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4± 2.5high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.8± 2.3medium
- Peter LambertHOU5.5± 2.4high
Hits
- Isaac ParedesHOU1.0± 1.0high
- Jose AltuveHOU1.0± 0.8high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Isaac ParedesHOU1.8± 2.0high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.8± 1.7high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1.7± 2.1high
RBIs
- Isaac ParedesHOU0.8± 1.3high
- Ben RiceNYY0.6± 0.8high
- Trent GrishamNYY0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Will WarrenNYY2.8± 2.4high
- Hayden WesneskiHOU2.6± 2.5low
- Hunter BrownHOU2.4± 2.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
HOU
league avg
NYY
.727
OPS
◀
.719
.716
.317
OBP
◀
.318
.309
4.55
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.45
4.63
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.20
1.36
WHIP
1.30
▶1.17
8.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 25HOU
Astros
83-75
vs59.4%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
85-68
HOU 40.6%win prob59.4% NYY
NYY 1538 · HOU 1512Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxMarlins8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RaysTigers8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RockiesNationals8/25 - 6:45 PM EDT
- RoyalsBlue Jays8/25 - 7:07 PM EDT
- BrewersMets8/25 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DodgersBraves8/25 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersWhite Sox8/25 - 7:40 PM EDT
- OriolesCardinals8/25 - 7:45 PM EDT
- GuardiansAngels8/25 - 9:38 PM EDT
- CubsDiamondbacks8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- TwinsAthletics8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesMariners8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PiratesPadres8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RedsGiants8/25 - 9:45 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
