Recent form
4-6
CHC 0.0 vs ARI -0.4 margin
CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC
CHC
75-56
PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
ARI
ARI
69-62
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Line movement
200 snapshots
ARI spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
ARI no-vig %
42.7%
open 45.8% · -3.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kevin Gausman
SP · #12
6-11
W-L
4.58
ERA
1.30
WHIP
143
K
143.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHW-4.1 IP3 ER5 K
@WSHL(6-11)4.2 IP6 ER7 K
@KCW(6-10)7.0 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Merrill Kelly
SP · #29
8-11
W-L
5.37
ERA
1.52
WHIP
84
K
129.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@BOSL(8-11)4.0 IP6 ER2 K
vsCOLL(8-10)5.0 IP6 ER2 K
vsLAD-5.2 IP1 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money-144 / +119
Model edge
Win prob56% / 44%
LeanAway · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Place a bet
Take CHC on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs CHC.
ARI is 5-5 recently; CHC is 4-6.
44.0%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI5–5-0.4
- CHC4–6+0.0
Situational
- ARI1d restB2B
- CHC1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; CHC has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Shota Imanaga · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.4strikeouts · ±2.2
Kevin Gausman · 5.4 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.5.
- Eduardo RodriguezARI4.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Eduardo Rodriguez · 4 K · last-10 3.9 vs season 4.1.
Line move
open +109→+124toward CHC
The market has moved 3.2pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.6%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
45.2%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.4%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.48 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs CHC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6± 2.0high
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.4± 2.2high
- Clay HolmesCHC4.1± 3.1low
Hits
- Corbin CarrollARI1.2± 0.8high
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.2± 0.8high
- Nico HoernerCHC1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.6± 3.5high
- Corbin CarrollARI2.4± 2.4high
- Gabriel MorenoARI2.1± 1.4high
RBIs
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.0± 1.1high
- Nolan ArenadoARI0.9± 1.6high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.9± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI3.1± 2.3high
- Kevin GausmanCHC3.1± 1.8high
- Matthew BoydCHC2.6± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHC
league avg
ARI
.762
OPS
◀
.719
.719
.339
OBP
◀
.318
.318
5.22
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.56
4.12
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.19
1.26
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.29
7.7
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelLean
Mon, Aug 24CHC★
Cubs
88-67
vs55.9%CHC
ARI
Diamondbacks
73-78
CHC 55.9%win prob44.1% ARI
CHC 1564 · ARI 1507Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
