Recent form
7-3
LAD +0.9 vs ATL -1.4 margin
LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
LAD
LAD
80-51
PregameTue, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, TBS
ATL
ATL
76-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Tyler Glasnow
SP · #31
3-0
W-L
2.72
ERA
0.83
WHIP
49
K
39.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@HOU-1.0 IP1 ER2 K
vsMIA-5.2 IP2 ER9 K
@SFW(3-0)8.0 IP0 ER9 K
Home starter
Bryce Elder
SP · #55
8-7
W-L
3.92
ERA
1.23
WHIP
113
K
137.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARI-6.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsNYML(8-7)5.0 IP7 ER4 K
vsMIAW(8-6)7.0 IP1 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob49% / 51%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs LAD.
ATL is 3-7 recently; LAD is 7-3.
51.4%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL3–7-1.4
- LAD7–3+0.9
Situational
- ATL2d rest
- LAD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 7 straight road games; LAD has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.7strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
- Chris SaleATL7.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Chris Sale · 7.3 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 7.2.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.4strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.4 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
49.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.8%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.66 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
131
projections · 107 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.7± 2.4high
- Chris SaleATL7.3± 2.5high
- Blake SnellLAD6.5± 3.2low
Hits
- Michael Harris IIATL1.2± 0.9high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.1± 1.1high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD1.1± 1.2high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.4± 3.1high
- Max MuncyLAD2.2± 2.1high
- Michael Harris IIATL1.8± 1.6high
RBIs
- Max MuncyLAD0.8± 1.3high
- Mookie BettsLAD0.7± 0.9high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL3.1± 2.8high
- Eric LauerLAD2.6± 1.8high
- Roki SasakiLAD2.5± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
ATL
.761
OPS
◀
.719
.722
.335
OBP
◀
.318
.311
4.98
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.69
3.67
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.60
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.25
9.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.6
The One modelTossup
Tue, Aug 25LAD
Dodgers
95-65
vs51.3%ATL
ATL★
Braves
90-66
LAD 48.7%win prob51.3% ATL
ATL 1530 · LAD 1561Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
