Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 25, 2026

43-31

PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDT

DET

33-44

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesDET leads series 1-0-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.3± 2.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 4.0low
Casey MizeDET
5.2± 2.7low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.4± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 2.0high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.7± 1.6high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Colt KeithDET
0.6± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.4medium
Steven MatzTB
2.3± 2.7low
Keider MonteroDET
2.1± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

DET

.717

OPS

◀

.719

.708

.334

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.42

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.03

3.91

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.83

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league