Recent form
2-8
DET -1.4 vs TB -1.8 margin
DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
TB
TB
77-53
PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
DET
DET
61-69
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Ian Seymour
SP · #61
9-4
W-L
4.17
ERA
1.14
WHIP
123
K
101.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTORL(9-4)5.0 IP3 ER8 K
vsBAL-6.0 IP3 ER9 K
@SEAW(9-3)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
Home starter
Jackson Jobe
SP · #21
1-1
W-L
4.50
ERA
1.36
WHIP
11
K
14.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@PIT-5.1 IP1 ER3 K
vsCHWL(1-1)3.2 IP6 ER4 K
@SFW(1-0)5.0 IP0 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob66% / 34%
LeanAway · 16pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesDET leads series 1-0-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
DET vs TB.
DET has dropped 5 straight; TB is 3-7 over its last 10.
34.1%
model · DET win prob
Recent form
- DET2–8-1.4
- TB3–7-1.8
Situational
- DET2d rest
- TB2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. DET has 6 straight road games; TB has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Ian SeymourTB5.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Ian Seymour · 5.5 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 3.1.
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Drew Rasmussen · 5.2 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.6.
- Freddy PeraltaTB4.7strikeouts · ±1.5
Freddy Peralta · 4.7 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
33.3%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
39.9%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.37 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs TB.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 111 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Ian SeymourTB5.5± 2.8high
- Troy MeltonDET5.4± 2.4medium
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2± 3.1high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.3± 0.5high
- Yandy DiazTB1.3± 0.7high
- Gleyber TorresDET1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Yandy DiazTB1.9± 1.5high
- Brett CallahanDET1.8± 2.6low
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.8± 1.9high
RBIs
- Brett CallahanDET0.8± 1.3low
- Eduardo ValenciaDET0.7± 0.8high
- Kenny PiperTB0.7± 1.6low
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.3± 2.5high
- Framber ValdezDET2.8± 2.0high
- Jackson JobeDET2.3± 4.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TB
league avg
DET
.734
OPS
◀
.719
.723
.330
OBP
◀
.318
.319
4.52
Runs / G
4.50
4.52
3.83
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.62
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.22
8.2
K / 9
8.5
▶8.3
The One model★ Lock
Tue, Aug 25TB★
Rays
105-53
vs65.9%TB
DET
Tigers
64-84
TB 65.9%win prob34.1% DET
TB 1571 · DET 1476Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxMarlins8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RockiesNationals8/25 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AstrosYankees8/25 - 7:05 PM EDT
- RoyalsBlue Jays8/25 - 7:07 PM EDT
- BrewersMets8/25 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DodgersBraves8/25 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersWhite Sox8/25 - 7:40 PM EDT
- OriolesCardinals8/25 - 7:45 PM EDT
- GuardiansAngels8/25 - 9:38 PM EDT
- CubsDiamondbacks8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- TwinsAthletics8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesMariners8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PiratesPadres8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RedsGiants8/25 - 9:45 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
