Park factor
95 total idx
T-Mobile Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners
PHI
PHI
72-58
PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
SEA
SEA
62-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketT-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Zack Wheeler
SP · #45
10-4
W-L
2.92
ERA
1.01
WHIP
144
K
120.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIA-5.0 IP2 ER7 K
@STLL(10-4)5.0 IP4 ER5 K
vsTORL(10-3)5.1 IP4 ER6 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob58% / 42%
LeanAway · 8pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/24
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs PHI.
SEA is 6-4 recently; PHI is 8-2.
41.7%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA6–4-2.2
- PHI8–2+2.4
Situational
- SEA2d rest
- PHI2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SEA has 0 straight road games; PHI has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.6strikeouts · ±3.1
Jesus Luzardo · 7.6 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 7.2.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 7.2 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.5 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
41.1%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
44.0%
P(SEA win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
44.0%
P(SEA win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.4%
P(SEA win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.30 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.6± 3.1high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2± 3.2high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5± 2.9high
Hits
- Alec BohmPHI1.5± 1.4high
- Luis ArraezPHI1.4± 1.2high
- Brendan DonovanSEA1.2± 0.9high
Total bases
- Alec BohmPHI2.3± 2.4high
- Luis ArraezPHI2.0± 1.7high
- Randy ArozarenaSEA1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Alec BohmPHI1.0± 1.4high
- Bryan De La CruzPHI0.7± 1.4low
- Bryson StottPHI0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.5± 2.2medium
- Aaron NolaPHI2.9± 1.9high
- Bryce MillerSEA2.8± 2.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
SEA
.718
OPS
◀
.718
.684
.314
OBP
◀
.318
.309
4.56
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.93
4.11
Team ERA
4.16
▶4.01
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.23
10.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.7
The One modelEdge
Mon, Aug 24PHI★
Phillies
90-72
vs58.4%PHI
SEA
Mariners
73-84
PHI 58.4%win prob41.6% SEA
PHI 1547 · SEA 1481Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
