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Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins

BOS
BOS

BOS

71-59

PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIA
MIA

MIA

67-64

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

LoanDepot Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

BOS +2.0 vs MIA -0.2 margin

BOS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

›

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Payton Tolle

Payton Tolle

SP · #70

8-6

W-L

3.08

ERA

1.08

WHIP

134

K

120.0

IP

Last 3 starts

vsARI-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
@TORW(8-6)8.0 IP0 ER4 K
vsATHW(7-6)6.0 IP1 ER14 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob57% / 43%
LeanAway · 7pp
ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/24
TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

MIA vs BOS.

MIA enters on a 3-game win streak; BOS is 7-3 over its last 10.

43.1%

model · MIA win prob

Recent form

  • MIA5–5-0.2
  • BOS7–3+2.0

Situational

  • MIA2d rest
  • BOS2d rest
  • +0.0d differential

Rest is even. MIA has 0 straight road games; BOS has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

  • ▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.9strikeouts · ±2.7

    Payton Tolle · 6.9 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.4.

  • Eury PerezMIA
    6.2strikeouts · ±2.3

    Eury Perez · 6.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.

  • Sonny GrayBOS
    5.5strikeouts · ±2.1

    Sonny Gray · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.1.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    44.7%

    P(MIA win)

    44%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    44.7%

    P(MIA win)

    11%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.3%

    P(MIA win)

    45%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.9± 2.7high
  • Eury PerezMIA
    6.2± 2.3high
  • Sonny GrayBOS
    5.5± 2.1high

Hits

  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Nick SogardBOS
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Nick SogardBOS
    2.0± 2.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Mickey GasperBOS
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Patrick SandovalBOS
    2.5± 2.9low
  • Jake BennettBOS
    2.3± 1.7medium
  • Janson JunkMIA
    2.3± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

BOS

league avg

MIA

MIA

.731

OPS

.719

.728

.324

OBP

.318

.326

4.53

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.37

3.51

Team ERA

◀

4.16

3.90

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.25

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

The One modelLean
Tue, Aug 25
BOS

BOS★

Red Sox

81-73

vs57.0%BOS

MIA

Marlins

78-74

MIA
BOS 57.0%win prob43.0% MIA
BOS 1570 · MIA 1509Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

72%Last 7 · 74-29
64%Last 30 · 304-169
Receipts →

Team pages

Boston Red SoxatMiami Marlins

Elsewhere in the MLB

  • Rays@Tigers8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
  • Rockies@Nationals8/25 - 6:45 PM EDT
  • Astros@Yankees8/25 - 7:05 PM EDT
  • Royals@Blue Jays8/25 - 7:07 PM EDT
  • Brewers@Mets8/25 - 7:10 PM EDT
  • Dodgers@Braves8/25 - 7:15 PM EDT
  • Rangers@White Sox8/25 - 7:40 PM EDT
  • Orioles@Cardinals8/25 - 7:45 PM EDT
  • Guardians@Angels8/25 - 9:38 PM EDT
  • Cubs@Diamondbacks8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
  • Twins@Athletics8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
  • Phillies@Mariners8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
  • Pirates@Padres8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
  • Reds@Giants8/25 - 9:45 PM EDT
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Tatis Jr. (SD): 4 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over MIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 37 PTS · 3 REB · 10 AST in a win over CHI
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Sent LF Nelson Velázquez outright to Sugar Land (PCL) (Aug 23)
LAST NIGHT · MLBP. Ramirez (CHC): 3 H · 1 HR · 5 RBI in a win over SEA
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Loftin (KC): 3 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over DET
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Sent C Jesus Rodriguez on a rehab assignment to Sacramento (PCL) (Aug 23)
LAST NIGHT · MLBI. Happ (CHC): 2 H · 1 HR · 5 RBI in a win over SEA
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 31 PTS · 10 REB in a win over POR
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Recalled C Bo Naylor from Nashville (IL) (Aug 23)
TRANSACTION · NFLBrowns: Signed DE Derek Barnett to a one-year contract (Aug 23)
TRANSACTION · NFLChargers: Placed C Tyler Biadasz on injured reserve (Aug 23)
TRANSACTION · NFL49ers: Re-signed TE Khalil Dinkins to a three-year contract (Aug 23)
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ LA, 8/24 - 10:00 PM EDT — ATL -9.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Tatis Jr. (SD): 4 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over MIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 37 PTS · 3 REB · 10 AST in a win over CHI
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Sent LF Nelson Velázquez outright to Sugar Land (PCL) (Aug 23)
LAST NIGHT · MLBP. Ramirez (CHC): 3 H · 1 HR · 5 RBI in a win over SEA
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Loftin (KC): 3 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over DET
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Sent C Jesus Rodriguez on a rehab assignment to Sacramento (PCL) (Aug 23)
LAST NIGHT · MLBI. Happ (CHC): 2 H · 1 HR · 5 RBI in a win over SEA
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 31 PTS · 10 REB in a win over POR
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Recalled C Bo Naylor from Nashville (IL) (Aug 23)
TRANSACTION · NFLBrowns: Signed DE Derek Barnett to a one-year contract (Aug 23)
TRANSACTION · NFLChargers: Placed C Tyler Biadasz on injured reserve (Aug 23)
TRANSACTION · NFL49ers: Re-signed TE Khalil Dinkins to a three-year contract (Aug 23)
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ LA, 8/24 - 10:00 PM EDT — ATL -9.5
MLB·Tue, Aug 25·8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT/Seriesstarts 8/24

Preview · MLB

Boston Red Sox visit Miami Marlins Tuesday at 8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT. BOS arrives on a 3-game win streak (7-5 in their last 12).

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins · pregame

MLB · Box score

8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT

No player stats available yet.

No player stats available yet.

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

589

Runs

573

1094

Hits

1083

65

Errors

84

1773

TB

1744

133

HR

133

415

BB

446

1051

K

1067

0

LOB

0

Season series

Series starts 8/24

Aug 24BOSBOS@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 25BOSBOS@MIAMIAtoday
Aug 26BOSBOS@MIAMIAupcoming

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
BOSBOSSP
P. Tolle

P. Tolle

#70 · 8-6

ERA

3.08

K

134

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/19vsARIARI5.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K-
8/13@TORTOR8.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 KW(8-6)
8/7vsATHATH6.0 IP · 1 ER · 14 KW(7-6)
VS
MIAMIA

Starter TBD

Scouting report

BOS @ MIA

8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
StorylineBOS riding a 3-game win streak · MIA on a 3-game roll.

Rest going in

BOSStandard

1 day

last game Aug 23

MIAStandard

1 day

last game Aug 23

Tale of the tape

BOSmetricMIA

71-59

Record

67-64

#3

Conf rank

#8

+0.7

Pt diff

+0.2

W3

Streak

W3

7-3

Last 10

5-5

Bullpen used yesterday

BOS

2.0 bullpen IP

  • T. Guerrero1.0 IP11 P
  • A. Chapman1.0 IP15 P

W 5-4 · Aug 23

MIA

4.3 bullpen IP · heavy

  • M. Petersen0.1 IP12 P
  • C. Faucher1.0 IP18 P
  • J. Ralston2.0 IP31 P
  • P. Fairbanks1.0 IP20 P

W 6-2 · Aug 23

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.