Recent form
6-4
CHW +0.3 vs TEX -1.2 margin
CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
TEX
TEX
65-66
PregameTue, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CHW
CHW
68-62
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRate Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jacob deGrom
SP · #48
9-8
W-L
3.77
ERA
1.13
WHIP
157
K
126.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSHW(9-8)6.0 IP0 ER10 K
@LAAL(8-8)2.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsBALW(8-7)5.0 IP1 ER9 K
Home starter
Anthony Kay
SP · #18
9-6
W-L
3.96
ERA
1.33
WHIP
104
K
127.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATLL(9-6)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
@DET-5.1 IP3 ER4 K
vsCLEW(9-5)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob40% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHW vs TEX.
CHW is 6-4 recently; TEX is 5-5.
60.3%
model · CHW win prob
Recent form
- CHW6–4+0.3
- TEX5–5-1.2
Situational
- CHW2d rest
- TEX2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHW has 0 straight road games; TEX has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW6.7strikeouts · ±3.1
Sean Burke · 6.7 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.1.
- Jacob deGromTEX6.7strikeouts · ±2.7
Jacob deGrom · 6.7 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.5.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2strikeouts · ±1.8
MacKenzie Gore · 6.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.
Head-to-head · 2-1 · last 3
CHW is 2-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-20CHW @ TEX10–3
- 2026-07-21CHW @ TEX0–10
- 2026-07-22CHW @ TEX4–2
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.5%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
58.8%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.6%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.1%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.67 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs TEX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 117 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW6.7± 3.1high
- Jacob deGromTEX6.7± 2.7high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2± 1.8high
Hits
- Miguel VargasCHW1.1± 1.2high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.1± 1.2high
- Tristan PetersCHW1.0± 1.1high
Total bases
- Miguel VargasCHW2.5± 3.4high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.9± 2.5high
- Tristan PetersCHW1.8± 2.3high
RBIs
- Braden MontgomeryCHW0.7± 1.1high
- Jake BurgerTEX0.7± 1.2high
- Andrew BenintendiCHW0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Luis CastilloCHW3.0± 1.7high
- Kumar RockerTEX2.7± 2.3high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX2.7± 2.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TEX
league avg
CHW
.706
OPS
.719
▶.727
.314
OBP
.318
▶.318
3.98
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.75
4.19
Team ERA
4.16
▶4.09
1.29
WHIP
1.30
1.30
8.7
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.5
The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 25TEX
Rangers
81-75
vs60.3%CHW
CHW★
White Sox
84-69
TEX 39.7%win prob60.3% CHW
CHW 1525 · TEX 1487Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxMarlins8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RaysTigers8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RockiesNationals8/25 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AstrosYankees8/25 - 7:05 PM EDT
- RoyalsBlue Jays8/25 - 7:07 PM EDT
- BrewersMets8/25 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DodgersBraves8/25 - 7:15 PM EDT
- OriolesCardinals8/25 - 7:45 PM EDT
- GuardiansAngels8/25 - 9:38 PM EDT
- CubsDiamondbacks8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- TwinsAthletics8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesMariners8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PiratesPadres8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RedsGiants8/25 - 9:45 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
