Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 25, 2026

BAL

63-68

PregameTue, 7:45 PM EDTMLB.TV

STL

66-66

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

98 total idx

Busch Stadium run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

STL +0.2 vs BAL +0.1 margin

STL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Chris Bassitt

SP · #40

4-4

W-L

5.08

ERA

1.62

WHIP

67.1

Last 3 starts

vsNYY-5.2 IP3 ER6 K

@TB-5.1 IP2 ER3 K

@BOSL(4-4)3.0 IP3 ER1 K

Home starter

Matthew Liberatore

SP · #32

5-11

W-L

5.04

ERA

1.44

WHIP

125

125.0

Last 3 starts

@CINL(5-11)6.0 IP3 ER9 K

@CHCL(5-10)5.1 IP2 ER6 K

vsCOLL(5-9)5.0 IP5 ER3 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob40% / 60%

LeanHome · 10pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSTL wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

STL vs BAL.

STL has dropped 3 straight; BAL is 5-5 over its last 10.

60.0%

model · STL win prob

Recent form

STL5–5+0.2
BAL5–5+0.1

Situational

STL2d rest
BAL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. STL has 11 straight road games; BAL has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.2pp

Players to watch

Shane BazBAL
5.5strikeouts · ±3.0
Shane Baz · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
Trevor RogersBAL
5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.8.
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.5strikeouts · ±2.3
Matthew Liberatore · 5.5 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 5.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
58.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.7%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shane BazBAL
5.5± 3.0high
Trevor RogersBAL
5.5± 1.7high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.5± 2.3high

Hits

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.4± 0.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 0.7high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.3± 1.3high

Total bases

Jordan WalkerSTL
2.6± 2.8high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.5± 2.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.7high
Joshua BaezSTL
1.0± 2.2low

Earned runs

Quinn MathewsSTL
3.3± 4.3low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.8± 2.1high
Chris BassittBAL
2.7± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

STL

.713

OPS

◀

.719

.699

.317

OBP

.318

.317

4.45

Runs / G

4.50

4.43

4.19

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.14

1.34

WHIP

1.30

1.34

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

The One modelEdge

Tue, Aug 25

BAL

Orioles

67-90

vs60.0%STL

STL★

Cardinals

78-71

BAL 40.0%win prob60.0% STL

STL 1502 · BAL 1468Box score→

Team pages

Baltimore OriolesSt. Louis Cardinals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals

The matchup, end-to-end.

STL vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs BAL.