Recent form
4-6
DAL -0.6 vs POR -2.0 margin
DAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Portland Fire at Dallas Wings
POR
POR
15-22
PregameTue, 8:00 PM EDTNBA TV
DAL
DAL
22-16
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Dallas Wings Tuesday at 8/25 - 8:00 PM EDT. POR is 4-3 in their last 7. DAL is 3-5 in their last 8.
Vegas opened DAL as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 176.5. DAL's moneyline implies a 78% break-even, POR the inverse.
For bettors: the DAL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 176.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
45
FG %
46
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Jun 14DAL83@POR84
DAL83@POR84Jul 23DAL101@POR97
DAL101@POR97Aug 26POR@DALtoday
POR@DALtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DAL -8.5
Between 7 and 10
1.0pt· 6.4h
Total
176.5
High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+28526%DAL-36078%20· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
+1.0 since open
Total
176.5
-1.0 since open
Scouting report
POR @ DAL
Rest going in
PORStandard
2 days
last game Aug 23
DALStandard
2 days
last game Aug 23
Model edge vs market
Pass · split signalSpread
Market
DAL -8.5
Model
POR -17.8
Edge
split
Total
Market
176.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
DAL -360
Model
POR
Edge
fading market
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
PORmetricDAL
15-22
Record
22-16
#5
Conf rank
#4
-4.4
Pt diff
+2.7
L2
Streak
W2
4-6
Last 10
4-6
57.0
Power score
39.2
#7
Power rank
#10
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
DAL -8.5·O/U 176.5·POR +285/DAL -360
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
DAL vs POR.
DAL is 4-6 recently; POR is 4-6.
68.4%
model · DAL win prob
Recent form
- DAL4–6-0.6
- POR4–6-2.0
Situational
- DAL2d rest
- POR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. DAL has 0 straight road games; POR has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Paige BueckersDAL20.2points · ±7.5
Paige Bueckers · 20.2 pts · last-10 20.3 vs season 20.1.
- Carla LeitePOR16.2points · ±8.2
Carla Leite · 16.2 pts · last-10 16.6 vs season 15.6.
- Bridget CarletonPOR16.1points · ±6.0
Bridget Carleton · 16.1 pts · last-10 17.2 vs season 14.5.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
DAL is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-13DAL @ POR83–84
- 2026-07-22DAL @ POR101–97
Line move
open -305→-325toward DAL
The market has moved 1.2pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
66.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
65.9%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
62.8%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.6%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.27 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.87
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+245
Close price
+285
Open no-vig
27.8%
Close no-vig
24.9%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at DAL?
- The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
DAL vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 120 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL20.2± 7.5high
- Carla LeitePOR16.2± 8.2high
- Bridget CarletonPOR16.1± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL9.2± 4.0high
- Bridget CarletonPOR5.5± 3.0high
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.4± 2.3high
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR7.0± 3.6high
- Paige BueckersDAL5.2± 2.6high
- Jessica ShepardDAL4.1± 2.6high
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL1.7± 2.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.1± 1.0high
- Alanna SmithDAL0.7± 1.0high
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.7± 1.1high
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.5± 1.4high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.2± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA