Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 24, 2026

PIT

63-68

PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

70-60

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Petco Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

SD +1.8 vs PIT +1.0 margin

SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Braxton Ashcraft

SP · #35

13-5

W-L

3.68

ERA

1.08

WHIP

159

149.1

Last 3 starts

vsDETW(13-5)8.0 IP1 ER4 K

@MIAW(12-5)9.0 IP1 ER10 K

@MILL(11-5)5.0 IP3 ER5 K

Home starter

Robbie Ray

SP · #38

11-7

W-L

3.20

ERA

1.31

WHIP

117

137.2

Last 3 starts

@NYMW(11-7)6.0 IP1 ER4 K

vsMIL-4.0 IP2 ER4 K

vsHOUL(10-7)5.0 IP4 ER2 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob39% / 61%

LeanHome · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSD leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SD vs PIT.

SD is 7-3 recently; PIT is 5-5.

60.9%

model · SD win prob

Recent form

SD7–3+1.8
PIT5–5+1.0

Situational

SD2d rest
PIT2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SD has 0 straight road games; PIT has 2.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Paul SkenesPIT
6.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 6.5 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.6.
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.3strikeouts · ±2.6
Braxton Ashcraft · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.4.
Michael KingSD
5.0strikeouts · ±1.1
Michael King · 5 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.9.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
61.0%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.6%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.9%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
6.5± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.3± 2.6high
Jared JonesPIT
5.3± 2.8low

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.9high
Brandon LowePIT
1.1± 0.7high
Ty FranceSD
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Rafael Flores Jr.PIT
2.4± 3.8medium
Oneil CruzPIT
2.1± 1.9high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

Oneil CruzPIT
1.0± 1.2high
Rafael Flores Jr.PIT
0.9± 2.2medium
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high
Walker BuehlerSD
2.9± 2.7high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
2.7± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

.740

OPS

◀

.718

.704

.331

OBP

◀

.318

.315

4.98

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.28

4.29

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.04

1.32

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

The One modelEdge

Mon, Aug 24

PIT

Pirates

68-76

vs60.9%SD

SD★

Padres

79-72

PIT 39.1%win prob60.9% SD

SD 1537 · PIT 1483Box score→

Team pages

Pittsburgh PiratesSan Diego Padres

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres

The matchup, end-to-end.

SD vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league