Recent form
2-8
DET -1.2 vs TB -1.6 margin
DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
TB
TB
76-53
PregameMon, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV, FS1
DET
DET
61-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Drew Rasmussen
SP · #57
13-5
W-L
3.01
ERA
0.95
WHIP
138
K
134.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTORW(13-5)5.0 IP5 ER5 K
@ATHW(12-5)5.0 IP2 ER3 K
@SEAW(11-5)7.0 IP0 ER8 K
Home starter
Framber Valdez
SP · #59
8-8
W-L
4.35
ERA
1.40
WHIP
111
K
138.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@PITW(8-8)5.2 IP4 ER5 K
vsCLEL(7-8)5.2 IP4 ER3 K
@SEAW(7-7)7.0 IP0 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob64% / 36%
LeanAway · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesDET leads series 1-0-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
DET vs TB.
DET has dropped 4 straight; TB is 3-7 over its last 10.
36.2%
model · DET win prob
Recent form
- DET2–8-1.2
- TB3–7-1.6
Situational
- DET2d rest
- TB2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. DET has 5 straight road games; TB has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Ian SeymourTB5.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Ian Seymour · 5.5 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 3.1.
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Drew Rasmussen · 5.2 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.6.
- Freddy PeraltaTB4.7strikeouts · ±1.5
Freddy Peralta · 4.7 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
34.9%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
41.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.68 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs TB.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 108 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Ian SeymourTB5.5± 2.8high
- Troy MeltonDET5.4± 2.4medium
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2± 3.1high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.4± 0.5high
- Yandy DiazTB1.3± 0.7high
- Gleyber TorresDET1.2± 0.9high
Total bases
- Yandy DiazTB2.1± 1.6high
- Brett CallahanDET1.8± 2.9low
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.8± 1.9high
RBIs
- Brett CallahanDET1.0± 1.4low
- Eduardo ValenciaDET0.7± 0.8high
- Junior CamineroTB0.7± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.3± 2.5high
- Framber ValdezDET2.8± 2.0high
- Jackson JobeDET2.3± 4.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TB
league avg
DET
.736
OPS
◀
.718
.722
.330
OBP
◀
.318
.318
4.53
Runs / G
4.50
4.50
3.85
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.56
1.17
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.21
8.3
K / 9
8.5
8.3
The One modelEdge
Mon, Aug 24TB★
Rays
104-53
vs63.9%TB
DET
Tigers
64-83
TB 63.9%win prob36.1% DET
TB 1567 · DET 1480Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
