Park factor
94 total idx
Oracle Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
CIN
CIN
62-68
PregameMon, 9:45 PM EDTMLB.TV, FS1
SF
SF
52-77
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOracle Park · San Francisco, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Chase Burns
SP · #26
14-2
W-L
2.51
ERA
1.11
WHIP
159
K
136.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSTL-5.0 IP2 ER8 K
vsMIAW(14-2)7.0 IP0 ER8 K
@WSHL(13-2)5.1 IP5 ER6 K
Home starter
Carson Whisenhunt
SP · #88
3-4
W-L
7.03
ERA
1.84
WHIP
23
K
32.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CLEL(3-4)4.0 IP6 ER1 K
vsHOUW(3-3)5.2 IP1 ER2 K
@TEXL(2-3)3.1 IP4 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesCIN wins series 2-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SF vs CIN.
SF has dropped 3 straight; CIN is 4-6 over its last 10.
55.6%
model · SF win prob
Recent form
- SF3–7-1.3
- CIN4–6-1.5
Situational
- SF2d rest
- CIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SF has 5 straight road games; CIN has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.5pp
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.5 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.6.
- Brady SingerCIN4.6strikeouts · ±1.4
Brady Singer · 4.6 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 4.3.
- Landen RouppSF4.5strikeouts · ±2.0
Landen Roupp · 4.5 K · last-10 4.1 vs season 5.2.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Player projections
SF vs CIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 94 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5± 2.5high
- Brady SingerCIN4.6± 1.4high
- Landen RouppSF4.5± 2.0high
Hits
- Sal StewartCIN1.1± 0.6high
- Bryce EldridgeSF0.9± 0.6high
- Jung Hoo LeeSF0.9± 0.9high
Total bases
- Sal StewartCIN1.8± 1.6high
- Bryce EldridgeSF1.8± 1.8high
- Rafael DeversSF1.7± 2.0high
RBIs
- Sal StewartCIN0.8± 1.2high
- Drew GilbertSF0.7± 1.1high
- Eugenio SuarezCIN0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Carson WhisenhuntSF3.6± 2.7low
- Brady SingerCIN2.9± 1.1high
- Nick LodoloCIN2.7± 2.9medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
SF
.699
OPS
.718
▶.710
.306
OBP
.318
.305
4.11
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.02
4.51
Team ERA
4.16
▶4.35
1.41
WHIP
1.30
▶1.36
8.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
The One modelLean
Mon, Aug 24CIN
Reds
71-80
vs55.6%SF
SF★
Giants
71-88
CIN 44.4%win prob55.6% SF
SF 1441 · CIN 1461Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
