Park factor
96 total idx
LoanDepot Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins
BOS
BOS
70-59
PregameMon, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIA
MIA
66-64
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketloanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Ranger Suarez
SP · #55
5-3
W-L
3.41
ERA
1.18
WHIP
113
K
113.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARIW(5-3)5.1 IP4 ER3 K
@TOR-5.0 IP1 ER2 K
vsCHW-3.0 IP3 ER3 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob58% / 43%
LeanAway · 8pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/24
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIA vs BOS.
MIA is 5-5 recently; BOS is 6-4.
42.4%
model · MIA win prob
Recent form
- MIA5–5+0.0
- BOS6–4+1.7
Situational
- MIA2d rest
- BOS2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIA has 0 straight road games; BOS has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Payton TolleBOS6.9strikeouts · ±2.7
Payton Tolle · 6.9 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.4.
- Eury PerezMIA6.1strikeouts · ±2.8
Eury Perez · 6.1 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 6.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Sonny Gray · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
41.5%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
44.4%
P(MIA win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
44.4%
P(MIA win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.2%
P(MIA win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.60 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 108 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.9± 2.7high
- Eury PerezMIA6.1± 2.8high
- Sonny GrayBOS5.5± 2.1high
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 0.9high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS1.2± 1.1high
- Caleb DurbinBOS1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.2± 2.5high
- Willson ContrerasBOS2.1± 2.0high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.9± 1.8high
RBIs
- Caleb DurbinBOS0.7± 1.6high
- Mickey GasperBOS0.7± 1.1high
- Willson ContrerasBOS0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Janson JunkMIA2.7± 3.4medium
- Patrick SandovalBOS2.6± 3.1low
- Jake BennettBOS2.1± 2.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
MIA
.730
OPS
.718
.728
.324
OBP
.318
.326
4.53
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.36
3.51
Team ERA
◀
4.16
3.92
1.22
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.25
8.7
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.4
The One modelLean
Mon, Aug 24BOS★
Red Sox
80-73
vs57.5%BOS
MIA
Marlins
77-74
BOS 57.5%win prob42.5% MIA
BOS 1568 · MIA 1505Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
