Recent form
7-3
LAD +0.7 vs PIT 0.0 margin
LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
PIT
PIT
63-66
PregameFri, 10:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD
77-51
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Bubba Chandler
SP · #36
6-8
W-L
4.23
ERA
1.37
WHIP
108
K
121.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOSW(6-8)5.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsNYMW(5-8)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
@MILW(4-8)5.2 IP2 ER5 K
Home starter
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SP · #18
12-7
W-L
2.60
ERA
0.89
WHIP
136
K
145.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMILW(12-7)6.0 IP1 ER9 K
@ARI-5.2 IP0 ER6 K
vsBOSL(11-7)8.0 IP3 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesLAD lead series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs PIT.
LAD enters on a 3-game win streak; PIT is 5-5 over its last 10.
60.9%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD7–3+0.7
- PIT5–5+0.0
Situational
- LAD2d rest
- PIT2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LAD has 3 straight road games; PIT has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Paul SkenesPIT6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 6.7 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.6.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.3strikeouts · ±2.1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.3 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.2.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.3strikeouts · ±2.6
Braxton Ashcraft · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.3%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
62.2%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.2%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.99 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs PIT.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
132
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.5± 2.5medium
- Blake SnellLAD6.7± 3.9low
- Paul SkenesPIT6.7± 2.1high
Hits
- Shohei OhtaniLAD1.2± 1.2high
- Andy PagesLAD1.1± 1.1high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.5± 3.1high
- Oneil CruzPIT2.0± 2.0high
- Andy PagesLAD1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Max MuncyLAD0.9± 1.3high
- Oneil CruzPIT0.9± 1.3high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.8± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Emmet SheehanLAD2.9± 2.0high
- Roki SasakiLAD2.8± 2.1high
- Paul SkenesPIT2.8± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PIT
league avg
LAD
.744
OPS
.719
▶.765
.333
OBP
.318
.335
5.01
Runs / G
4.50
5.00
4.29
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.70
1.32
WHIP
1.30
▶1.17
9.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
9.2
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 21PIT
Pirates
68-74
vs60.9%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
92-65
PIT 39.1%win prob60.9% LAD
LAD 1552 · PIT 1489Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesBrewers8/21 - 4:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsPhillies8/21 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysYankees8/21 - 7:05 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/21 - 7:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/21 - 7:10 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/21 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/21 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/21 - 8:10 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/21 - 8:10 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/21 - 8:15 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/21 - 8:40 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/21 - 9:40 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/21 - 9:40 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/21 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
