Recent form
6-4
STL +1.7 vs PHI +1.6 margin
STL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
STL
STL
65-63
PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
PHI
PHI
70-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Hunter Dobbins
SP · #40
3-3
W-L
3.42
ERA
1.30
WHIP
49
K
50.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHCW(3-3)5.0 IP2 ER7 K
vsPHIL(2-3)5.0 IP1 ER6 K
@NYYL(2-2)6.1 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Jesus Luzardo
SP · #44
11-5
W-L
3.23
ERA
1.15
WHIP
185
K
150.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@MINW(11-5)6.2 IP1 ER9 K
vsTOR-7.0 IP2 ER12 K
vsWSHW(10-5)8.0 IP0 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob42% / 58%
LeanHome · 8pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSTL leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs STL.
PHI enters on a 6-game win streak; STL is 6-4 over its last 10.
58.1%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI8–2+1.6
- STL6–4+1.7
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- STL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; STL has 7.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.2
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.6 vs season 7.2.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 7.2 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.5 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 7.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
PHI is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-10PHI @ STL6–5
- 2026-08-11PHI @ STL0–2
- 2026-08-12PHI @ STL1–7
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.1%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
57.6%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.8%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.5%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.12 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.2high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2± 3.2high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5± 2.9high
Hits
- Alec BohmPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.3± 0.8high
- Bryson StottPHI1.2± 0.5high
Total bases
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.4± 2.0high
- Joshua BaezSTL2.4± 7.2low
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.3± 3.0high
RBIs
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.2± 1.5high
- Joshua BaezSTL1.2± 2.9low
- Alec BohmPHI0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.5± 2.2medium
- Aaron NolaPHI3.0± 1.9high
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.9± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
STL
league avg
PHI
.699
OPS
.719
▶.713
.317
OBP
◀
.318
.312
4.39
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.48
4.01
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.12
1.32
WHIP
1.30
1.31
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶10.0
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 21STL
Cardinals
77-68
vs58.1%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
88-72
STL 41.9%win prob58.1% PHI
PHI 1539 · STL 1510Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesBrewers8/21 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysYankees8/21 - 7:05 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/21 - 7:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/21 - 7:10 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/21 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/21 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/21 - 8:10 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/21 - 8:10 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/21 - 8:15 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/21 - 8:40 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/21 - 9:40 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/21 - 9:40 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/21 - 10:10 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/21 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
