Park factor
115 total idx
Coors Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
CLE
CLE
61-66
PregameFri, 8:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
COL
COL
50-77
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketCoors Field · Denver, Colorado
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Joey Cantillo
SP · #54
9-7
W-L
3.80
ERA
1.44
WHIP
139
K
125.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(9-7)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@CHW-1.0 IP1 ER3 K
vsNYML(8-7)5.0 IP2 ER5 K
Home starter
Tanner Gordon
RP · #29
0-3
W-L
5.55
ERA
1.44
WHIP
62
K
71.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@SF-4.0 IP0 ER4 K
@STLL(0-3)3.1 IP2 ER2 K
vsTB-6.0 IP4 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob65% / 35%
LeanAway · 15pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCLE leads series 1-0-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
COL vs CLE.
COL has dropped 3 straight; CLE is 3-7 over its last 10.
35.1%
model · COL win prob
Recent form
- COL4–6-1.5
- CLE3–7-0.4
Situational
- COL2d rest
- CLE2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. COL has 0 straight road games; CLE has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+1.3pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.3strikeouts · ±2.6
Gavin Williams · 8.3 K · last-10 8.7 vs season 7.6.
- Joey CantilloCLE5.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Joey Cantillo · 5.9 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 5.3.
- Parker MessickCLE5.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Parker Messick · 5.4 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
34.0%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
40.5%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.4%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.7%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.04 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
COL vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.3± 2.6high
- Joey CantilloCLE5.9± 2.2high
- Parker MessickCLE5.4± 2.9high
Hits
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.3± 1.0high
- Steven KwanCLE1.2± 0.9high
- Angel MartinezCLE1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Zac VeenCOL2.0± 2.3low
- Jake McCarthyCOL1.9± 3.1high
- Angel MartinezCLE1.8± 1.9high
RBIs
- Zac VeenCOL1.2± 1.0low
- Adael AmadorCOL1.0± 1.9low
- Jo AdellCLE0.9± 1.9high
Earned runs
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.6± 2.6medium
- Gabriel HughesCOL3.5± 3.5low
- Kyle FreelandCOL3.4± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CLE
league avg
COL
.681
OPS
.719
▶.741
.312
OBP
.318
▶.323
3.95
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.81
3.80
Team ERA
◀
4.17
5.51
1.27
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.52
9.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.0
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 21CLE★
Guardians
81-72
vs64.8%CLE
COL
Rockies
56-91
CLE 64.8%win prob35.2% COL
CLE 1512 · COL 1421Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesBrewers8/21 - 4:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsPhillies8/21 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysYankees8/21 - 7:05 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/21 - 7:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/21 - 7:10 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/21 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/21 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/21 - 8:10 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/21 - 8:10 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/21 - 8:15 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/21 - 9:40 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/21 - 9:40 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/21 - 10:10 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/21 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
