Park factor
96 total idx
Petco Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres
MIN
MIN
63-65
PregameFri, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
SD
SD
68-60
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPetco Park · San Diego, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Connor Prielipp
SP · #61
3-6
W-L
5.34
ERA
1.38
WHIP
94
K
87.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPHIL(3-6)5.0 IP8 ER6 K
@MIL-5.0 IP3 ER7 K
@SEA-5.1 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Randy Vasquez
SP · #98
8-6
W-L
4.30
ERA
1.38
WHIP
71
K
111.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CLE-5.0 IP4 ER5 K
vsHOUW(8-6)5.0 IP2 ER1 K
@ARIW(7-6)6.0 IP0 ER1 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/21
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SD vs MIN.
SD is 7-3 recently; MIN is 5-5.
56.6%
model · SD win prob
Recent form
- SD7–3+1.8
- MIN5–5-0.7
Situational
- SD2d rest
- MIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SD has 6 straight road games; MIN has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Taj BradleyMIN6.5strikeouts · ±3.0
Taj Bradley · 6.5 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.3.
- Michael KingSD5.0strikeouts · ±1.0
Michael King · 5 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.
- Robbie RaySD4.5strikeouts · ±1.5
Robbie Ray · 4.5 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 4.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.9%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
55.2%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.4%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.57 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SD vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Taj BradleyMIN6.5± 3.0high
- Connor PrielippMIN5.8± 2.5medium
- Dean KremerMIN5.3± 2.7low
Hits
- Josh BellMIN1.1± 1.0high
- Luke KeaschallMIN1.1± 0.9high
- Brooks LeeMIN1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2.2± 2.9high
- Brooks LeeMIN1.8± 1.8high
- Josh BellMIN1.8± 2.0high
RBIs
- Josh BellMIN0.7± 1.1high
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD0.7± 1.2high
- Luis CampusanoSD0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Connor PrielippMIN3.2± 2.2medium
- Dean KremerMIN3.2± 3.2low
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.2± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIN
league avg
SD
.727
OPS
◀
.719
.704
.321
OBP
◀
.318
.315
4.63
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.24
4.62
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.05
1.38
WHIP
1.30
▶1.31
8.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.3
The One modelLean
Fri, Aug 21MIN
Twins
85-71
vs56.6%SD
SD★
Padres
77-72
MIN 43.4%win prob56.6% SD
SD 1529 · MIN 1517Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
