Recent form
4-6
HOU -0.9 vs ATH -1.6 margin
HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Athletics at Houston Astros
ATH
ATH
49-78
PregameFri, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
HOU
HOU
64-63
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
J.T. Ginn
SP · #35
8-7
W-L
3.53
ERA
1.22
WHIP
114
K
127.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEXL(8-7)6.0 IP4 ER7 K
@BOS-6.0 IP1 ER2 K
@CIN-6.0 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Hayden Wesneski
SP · #39
2-1
W-L
5.16
ERA
1.32
WHIP
18
K
22.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSEAL(2-1)4.0 IP5 ER6 K
@SF-7.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsTORW(2-0)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob34% / 67%
LeanHome · 17pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 3-3
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs ATH.
HOU is 4-6 recently; ATH is 3-7.
66.5%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU4–6-0.9
- ATH3–7-1.6
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- ATH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; ATH has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Peter LambertHOU5.8strikeouts · ±2.2
Peter Lambert · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.6.
- J.T. GinnATH4.8strikeouts · ±1.7
J.T. Ginn · 4.8 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 4.6.
- Jacob LopezATH4.6strikeouts · ±2.4
Jacob Lopez · 4.6 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 4.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
66.1%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
70.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.9%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.89 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 103 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gage JumpATH5.8± 3.7medium
- Peter LambertHOU5.8± 2.2high
- Hunter BrownHOU5.1± 2.1low
Hits
- Henry BolteATH1.2± 1.1high
- Isaac ParedesHOU1.2± 1.2high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.0± 1.3high
Total bases
- Cam SmithHOU2.0± 3.1high
- Henry BolteATH1.8± 2.1high
- Zack GelofATH1.8± 2.5high
RBIs
- Brian ServenATH0.7± 1.3low
- Christian WalkerHOU0.7± 1.1high
- Carlos CortesATH0.6± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Jeffrey SpringsATH4.0± 1.6high
- Hayden WesneskiHOU3.3± 1.7low
- Jack PerkinsATH3.2± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
HOU
.720
OPS
.719
▶.728
.318
OBP
.318
.317
4.37
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.57
5.50
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.55
1.51
WHIP
1.30
▶1.36
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
The One model★ Lock
Fri, Aug 21ATH
Athletics
58-92
vs66.5%HOU
HOU★
Astros
82-72
ATH 33.5%win prob66.5% HOU
HOU 1528 · ATH 1398Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
