Recent form
6-4
MIA +1.8 vs PHI +1.1 margin
MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
MIA
MIA
64-63
PregameWed, 6:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
PHI
PHI
69-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line movement
200 snapshots
PHI spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
PHI no-vig %
54.2%
open 51.7% · +2.5
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sandy Alcantara
SP · #22
13-7
W-L
3.43
ERA
1.17
WHIP
130
K
170.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@CINL(13-7)7.0 IP1 ER2 K
vsLAAW(13-6)7.0 IP0 ER8 K
@NYMW(12-6)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
Home starter
Aaron Nola
SP · #27
4-9
W-L
5.33
ERA
1.45
WHIP
138
K
130.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMINW(4-9)5.0 IP1 ER9 K
vsTOR-5.0 IP2 ER8 K
vsWSH-6.0 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+108 / -130
Model edge
Win prob42% / 58%
LeanHome · 8pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesPHI leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take PHI on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs MIA.
PHI enters on a 5-game win streak; MIA is 6-4 over its last 10.
58.4%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI7–3+1.1
- MIA6–4+1.8
Situational
- PHI1d restB2B
- MIA1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; MIA has 5.
Model angle
+4.4ppon PHI
PHI's edge is mostly venue split plus recent form. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▲Venue split+1.3pp
- ▲Recent form+1.3pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.2
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.6 vs season 7.2.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 7.2 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.5 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 7.
Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5
PHI is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-27PHI @ MIA7–8
- 2026-07-28PHI @ MIA0–1
- 2026-07-29PHI @ MIA6–8
- 2026-08-17MIA @ PHI5–6
- 2026-08-18MIA @ PHI4–6
Line move
open -118→-131toward PHI
The market has moved 2.6pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.1%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
58.2%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.8%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.20 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.2high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2± 3.2high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5± 2.9high
Hits
- Alec BohmPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Bryson StottPHI1.2± 0.5high
- Luis ArraezPHI1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.3± 3.0high
- Griffin ConineMIA2.1± 2.8high
- Alec BohmPHI2.0± 2.5high
RBIs
- Griffin ConineMIA0.8± 0.9high
- Alec BohmPHI0.8± 1.3high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI0.8± 1.4high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.5± 2.2medium
- Aaron NolaPHI3.0± 1.9high
- Janson JunkMIA2.7± 3.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
PHI
.730
OPS
◀
.719
.713
.327
OBP
◀
.318
.312
4.40
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.49
3.95
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.15
1.25
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.31
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶10.0
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 19MIA
Marlins
75-73
vs58.4%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
87-72
MIA 41.6%win prob58.4% PHI
PHI 1535 · MIA 1502Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- TigersPirates8/19 - 12:35 PM EDT
- PadresMets8/19 - 1:10 PM EDT
- BravesTwins8/19 - 1:40 PM EDT
- White SoxCubs8/19 - 2:20 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksRed Sox8/19 - 4:10 PM EDT
- YankeesOrioles8/19 - 6:35 PM EDT
- GiantsGuardians8/19 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsReds8/19 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysRays8/19 - 6:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsRoyals8/19 - 7:40 PM EDT
- MarinersBrewers8/19 - 7:40 PM EDT
- NationalsRangers8/19 - 8:05 PM EDT
- AngelsAstros8/19 - 8:10 PM EDT
- DodgersRockies8/19 - 8:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
