Recent form
6-4
NYY +0.7 vs TOR +0.5 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
TOR
TOR
62-66
PregameFri, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
NYY
NYY
71-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Cam Schlittler
SP · #31
10-6
W-L
2.19
ERA
0.94
WHIP
189
K
152.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@TOR-5.1 IP1 ER7 K
vsATL-7.0 IP1 ER11 K
vsSTL-3.0 IP4 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYY win series 3-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs TOR.
NYY enters on a 3-game win streak; TOR is 6-4 over its last 10.
61.3%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY6–4+0.7
- TOR6–4+0.5
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 5 straight road games; TOR has 2.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.6strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.6 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 8.5.
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Cam Schlittler · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.4strikeouts · ±1.3
Ryan Weathers · 5.4 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.8.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
NYY is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14NYY @ TOR1–3
- 2026-08-15NYY @ TOR1–4
- 2026-08-16NYY @ TOR4–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.2%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
62.8%
P(NYY win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
62.8%
P(NYY win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.5%
P(NYY win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.15 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 103 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.6± 2.6high
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.7± 2.2high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.5± 2.4medium
Hits
- Alejandro KirkTOR1.3± 1.3high
- Brett BatemanTOR1.3± 1.1low
- Trent GrishamNYY1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Trent GrishamNYY2.5± 3.3high
- Alejandro KirkTOR2.0± 2.5high
- Ben RiceNYY1.5± 1.8high
RBIs
- Trent GrishamNYY0.9± 1.4high
- Alejandro KirkTOR0.8± 1.1high
- Ben RiceNYY0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Max ScherzerTOR3.0± 3.6low
- Will WarrenNYY2.8± 2.4high
- Shane BieberTOR2.7± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
NYY
.682
OPS
.719
▶.715
.305
OBP
.318
.308
3.97
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.44
3.99
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.24
1.31
WHIP
1.30
▶1.17
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 21TOR
Blue Jays
66-95
vs61.3%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
82-67
TOR 38.7%win prob61.3% NYY
NYY 1532 · TOR 1465Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
