Park factor
97 total idx
Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
TB
TB
76-50
PregameFri, 7:15 PM EDTApple TV
BAL
BAL
61-66
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Freddy Peralta
SP · #51
5-10
W-L
5.27
ERA
1.48
WHIP
123
K
128.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBALL(5-10)4.2 IP2 ER2 K
@ATH-6.0 IP3 ER5 K
@COL-3.2 IP7 ER3 K
Home starter
Trevor Rogers
SP · #28
8-8
W-L
4.15
ERA
1.25
WHIP
108
K
125.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@TBW(8-8)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
@MINL(7-8)4.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsLAAW(7-7)6.0 IP2 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob72% / 28%
LeanAway · 22pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBAL wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BAL vs TB.
BAL has dropped 3 straight; TB is 6-4 over its last 10.
28.5%
model · BAL win prob
Recent form
- BAL5–5+0.7
- TB6–4+0.6
Situational
- BAL2d rest
- TB2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BAL has 0 straight road games; TB has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Shane BazBAL5.5strikeouts · ±3.0
Shane Baz · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.7.
- Ian SeymourTB5.4strikeouts · ±2.8
Ian Seymour · 5.4 K · last-10 7 vs season 2.9.
Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4
BAL is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14BAL @ TB6–5
- 2026-08-15BAL @ TB4–3
- 2026-08-16BAL @ TB10–2
- 2026-08-17BAL @ TB6–7
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
29.2%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
36.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
36.7%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.61 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BAL vs TB.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 116 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shane BazBAL5.5± 3.0high
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5± 1.7high
- Ian SeymourTB5.4± 2.8high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.6± 1.0high
- Yandy DiazTB1.6± 1.1high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.5± 0.9high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.9± 2.7high
- Yandy DiazTB2.4± 2.1high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.9± 2.5high
RBIs
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.0± 1.4high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.9± 1.3high
- Junior CamineroTB0.7± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.5± 3.2high
- Chris BassittBAL2.5± 2.2low
- Shane BazBAL2.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TB
league avg
BAL
.740
OPS
◀
.719
.718
.332
OBP
◀
.318
.320
4.59
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.51
3.85
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.23
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.35
8.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.1
The One model★ Lock
Fri, Aug 21TB★
Rays
104-50
vs71.6%TB
BAL
Orioles
65-88
TB 71.6%win prob28.4% BAL
TB 1584 · BAL 1465Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
