Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces
CON
2-15
LV
12-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Las Vegas Aces Thursday at 8/20 - 10:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
LV
Home
42
FG %
48
Season series
LV leads series 2-0
LV98@CON69LV101@CON94CON@LVtodayScouting report
CON @ LV
Tale of the tape
2-15
Record
12-4
#7
Conf rank
#2
-10.6
Pt diff
+4.4
L7
Streak
W2
1-9
Last 10
8-2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.4%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.8± 6.6medium
- Jackie YoungLV17.7± 7.6medium
- Chennedy CarterLV14.2± 12.2low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.1± 5.0medium
- A'ja WilsonLV9.6± 4.4medium
- NaLyssa SmithLV6.9± 3.3medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.3± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV7.1± 2.4medium
- Leila LacanCON4.8± 2.8low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.1± 2.0medium
- Brittney GrinerCON1.5± 1.6low
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 1.0medium
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.6± 1.4low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.5± 1.6medium
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
LV
42.6%
FG%
44.7
▶49.1%
26.0%
3PT %
33.5
▶36.2%
79.2
PPG
85.9
▶90.1
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.3
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.6