Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at LV?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

CON

9-25

PregameThu, 10:00 PM EDTVegas 34, WNBA League Pass, NBC Sports BO

24-13

ATS/LV -14.5O/U/165.5ML/LV-1200

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

5-5

LV -2.6 vs CON -9.6 margin

LV brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+308.3

LV Elo vs CON Elo

LV owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CON uphill early today again.

WNBAThu, Aug 208/20 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesLV leads series 2-0VegasLV -14.5

Preview · WNBA

onnecticut Sun visit Las Vegas Aces Thursday at 8/20 - 10:00 PM EDT. CON is 2-4 in their last 6. LV is 5-5 in their last 10.

Vegas opened LV as a 14.5-point favorite with the total at 165.5. LV's moneyline implies a 92% break-even, CON the inverse.

For bettors: the LV side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 165.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

LV leads series 2-0

May 14

LV98@

CON69

May 15

LV101@

CON94

Aug 21

CON@

LVtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -14.5

Between 10 and —

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

CON+75012%

LV-120092%

200· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -14.5↗SpreadBet LV -14.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

+1.0 since open

Total

165.5

-4.0 since open

Scouting report

CON @ LV

8/20 - 10:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

CONStandard

2 days

last game Aug 18

LVStandard

2 days

last game Aug 18

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

LV -14.5

Model

LV -19.2

Edge

+4.7 pts

Total

Market

165.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LV -1200

Model

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CONmetricLV

9-25

Record

24-13

Conf rank

-7.5

Pt diff

+2.9

Streak

3-7

Last 10

5-5

27.3

Power score

46.5

#10

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

LV -14.5·O/U 165.5·CON +750/LV -1200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

LV vs CON.

LV is 5-5 recently; CON is 3-7.

96.1%

model · LV win prob

Recent form

LV5–5-2.6
CON3–7-9.6

Situational

LV2d rest
CON2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LV has 0 straight road games; CON has 0.

Model angle

+7.4ppon LV

LV's edge is mostly venue split plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

▲Venue split+1.5pp
▲Line steam+0.7pp
▲Head to head+0.6pp

Players to watch

A'ja WilsonLV
25.9points · ±6.8
A'ja Wilson · 25.9 pts · last-10 26.2 vs season 25.5.
Jackie YoungLV
21.4points · ±6.7
Jackie Young · 21.4 pts · last-10 23.4 vs season 18.4.
Brittney GrinerCON
13.9points · ±7.0
Brittney Griner · 13.9 pts · last-10 14.5 vs season 13.1.

Head-to-head · 5-0 · last 5

LV is 5-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-26CON @ LV59–85
2025-07-06LV @ CON86–68
2025-08-11CON @ LV86–94
2026-05-13LV @ CON98–69
2026-05-15LV @ CON101–94

Line move

open -900→-1100toward LV

The market has moved 1.7pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

97.2%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
89.8%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
90.9%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
94.2%
P(LV win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LV.

LV's edge is mostly venue split plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+7.4

pp edge · LV

+2.39

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on LV

99.3%

±4.2pp band

5u large — +6.7pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+10.6pp

+3.2pp post-cal

Kelly

87.0%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.08

+6.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 7.4pp · LV over CON

▲
Venue split64% conf
LV's venue form is 31.4pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Line steam70% conf
The market moved 1.7pp toward LV since open.
+0.7pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
LV has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
LV is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp

Open price

-900

Close price

-1200

Open no-vig

86.3%

Close no-vig

88.7%

Market steamed in our direction

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at LV?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.4pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

CON

no live price

★ best

-1200DraftKings

edge +7.4pp · implied 88.7%

Book	CON	LV	Best edge
DraftKings	+750	-1200★	+7.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LV vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.9± 6.8high
Jackie YoungLV
21.4± 6.7high
Brittney GrinerCON
13.9± 7.0high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.9± 3.3high
NaLyssa SmithLV
7.2± 3.0high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
7.0± 3.9high

Assists

Jackie YoungLV
6.4± 3.2high
Chelsea GrayLV
6.3± 2.2high
Leila LacanCON
4.8± 2.3high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
2.1± 1.2high
Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 0.9high
Kennedy BurkeCON
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Saniya RiversCON
1.3± 1.2high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.3± 0.8high
Leila LacanCON
1.2± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces

LV vs CON.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LV.

Where to bet this game.

LV vs CON.