Recent form
6-4
MIA +1.2 vs PHI +1.1 margin
MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
MIA
MIA
64-61
PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
PHI
PHI
67-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Zack Wheeler
SP · #45
10-4
W-L
2.89
ERA
1.00
WHIP
137
K
115.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@STLL(10-4)5.0 IP4 ER5 K
vsTORL(10-3)5.1 IP4 ER6 K
@BAL-2.0 IP0 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs MIA.
PHI enters on a 3-game win streak; MIA is 6-4 over its last 10.
56.5%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI6–4+1.1
- MIA6–4+1.2
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- MIA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 6 straight road games; MIA has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.2
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.6 vs season 7.2.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 7.2 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.5 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 7.
Head-to-head · 0-3 · last 3
PHI is 0-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-27PHI @ MIA7–8
- 2026-07-28PHI @ MIA0–1
- 2026-07-29PHI @ MIA6–8
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.8%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
56.2%
P(PHI win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(PHI win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.2%
P(PHI win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.50 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.2high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2± 3.2high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5± 2.9high
Hits
- Alec BohmPHI1.2± 1.4high
- Jakob MarseeMIA1.1± 1.2high
- Bryson StottPHI1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.3± 3.1high
- Griffin ConineMIA1.8± 2.8high
- Alec BohmPHI1.7± 2.3high
RBIs
- Kyle SchwarberPHI0.8± 1.4high
- Griffin ConineMIA0.6± 0.9high
- Heriberto HernandezMIA0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.2± 2.3medium
- Aaron NolaPHI3.0± 1.9high
- Janson JunkMIA2.9± 3.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
PHI
.729
OPS
◀
.719
.711
.326
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.40
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.46
3.92
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.16
1.24
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.31
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶10.0
The One modelLean
Tue, Aug 18MIA
Marlins
75-71
vs56.5%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
85-72
MIA 43.5%win prob56.5% PHI
PHI 1528 · MIA 1509Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
