Recent form
8-2
IND +10.2 vs TOR -16.1 margin
IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Indiana Fever at Toronto Tempo
IND
IND
23-12
PregameTue, 7:00 PM EDTESPN
TOR
TOR
10-23
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Toronto Tempo Tuesday at 8/18 - 7:00 PM EDT. IND arrives on a 4-game win streak (6-2 in their last 8).
Vegas opened IND as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 192.5. TOR's moneyline implies a 23% break-even, IND the inverse.
For bettors: the IND side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 192.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
49
FG %
45
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
Jun 16TOR91@IND113
TOR91@IND113Aug 18IND@TORtoday
IND@TORtodaySep 18IND@TORupcoming
IND@TORupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
192.5
High-scoring · +27.5 vs avg
Moneyline
IND-44081%TOR+34023%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
+1.0 since open
Total
192.5
-1.0 since open
Scouting report
IND @ TOR
StorylineIND riding a 4-game win streak · TOR lost 10 in a row.
Rest going in
INDStandard
1 day
last game Aug 16
TORUnknown
—
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
IND -9.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
192.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
IND -440
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
INDmetricTOR
23-12
Record
10-23
#1
Conf rank
#6
+5.9
Pt diff
-6.5
W4
Streak
L10
8-2
Last 10
0-10
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
IND -9.5·O/U 192.5·IND -440/TOR +340
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
TOR vs IND.
TOR has dropped 10 straight; IND is 8-2 over its last 10.
20.6%
model · TOR win prob
Recent form
- TOR0–10-16.1
- IND8–2+10.2
Situational
- TOR6d rest
- IND2d rest
- +4.0d differential
TOR has 4 more rest days. TOR has 5 straight road games; IND has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kelsey MitchellIND25.5points · ±4.5
Kelsey Mitchell · 25.5 pts · last-10 26.8 vs season 23.6.
- Caitlin ClarkIND23.1points · ±4.7
Caitlin Clark · 23.1 pts · last-10 24.4 vs season 21.1.
- Marina MabreyTOR19.9points · ±8.9
Marina Mabrey · 19.9 pts · last-10 19.2 vs season 20.9.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
TOR is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-16TOR @ IND91–113
Line move
open +295→+340toward IND
The market has moved 2.6pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
21.4%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
30.3%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
29.1%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
34.2%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.17 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.47
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+295
Close price
+340
Open no-vig
24.3%
Close no-vig
21.8%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at TOR?
- The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
TOR vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 95 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND25.5± 4.5high
- Caitlin ClarkIND23.1± 4.7high
- Marina MabreyTOR19.9± 8.9high
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND8.1± 4.2high
- Aneesah MorrowTOR6.4± 3.2high
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR5.4± 3.6high
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND8.6± 1.9high
- Julie AllemandTOR6.0± 3.2high
- Marina MabreyTOR3.7± 1.6high
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.1high
- Makayla TimpsonIND1.0± 1.2high
- Aneesah MorrowTOR0.6± 0.5high
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.8± 1.9high
- Julie AllemandTOR1.4± 1.1high
- Kelsey MitchellIND1.3± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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