Recent form
6-4
CHW +0.8 vs CHC +0.1 margin
CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
CHW
CHW
65-58
PregameTue, 8:05 PM EDTMLB.TV, TBS
CHC
CHC
72-53
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketWrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Kevin Gausman
SP · #12
6-11
W-L
4.53
ERA
1.27
WHIP
138
K
139.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@WSHL(6-11)4.2 IP6 ER7 K
@KCW(6-10)7.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsSTLW(5-10)5.2 IP1 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob42% / 58%
LeanHome · 8pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCHW win series 3-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHC vs CHW.
CHC is 6-4 recently; CHW is 6-4.
58.2%
model · CHC win prob
Recent form
- CHC6–4+0.1
- CHW6–4+0.8
Situational
- CHC2d rest
- CHW2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHC has 0 straight road games; CHW has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3strikeouts · ±2.3
Sean Burke · 7.3 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 6.3.
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Kevin Gausman · 5.3 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.5.
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.1strikeouts · ±1.5
Shota Imanaga · 5.1 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 5.4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.3%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
58.8%
P(CHC win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
58.8%
P(CHC win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.3%
P(CHC win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.25 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHC vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3± 2.3high
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.3± 2.4high
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.1± 1.4high
Hits
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.3± 0.8high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.2± 1.2high
- Michael BuschCHC1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Alex BregmanCHC2.3± 3.8high
- Chase MeidrothCHW2.3± 2.7high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.1± 3.1high
RBIs
- Alex BregmanCHC1.0± 2.1high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC0.9± 1.1high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Edward CabreraCHC3.3± 2.7low
- Kevin GausmanCHC3.3± 2.1high
- David PetersonCHC2.7± 2.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
CHC
.730
OPS
.719
▶.754
.318
OBP
.318
▶.337
4.83
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.16
4.11
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.16
1.29
WHIP
1.30
▶1.26
8.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 18CHW
White Sox
81-65
vs58.2%CHC
CHC★
Cubs
85-64
CHW 41.8%win prob58.2% CHC
CHC 1567 · CHW 1529Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
