St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 18, 2026

STL

41-34

PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDT

CIN

37-39

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

103 total idx

Great American Ball Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSTL leads series 4-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.0± 2.4medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Andre PallanteSTL
4.8± 2.4low

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.3± 1.4high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.7high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 1.7high
JJ WetherholtSTL
2.1± 3.0high
Noelvi MarteCIN
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 2.1high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.5low

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.1± 2.4low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

CIN

.730

OPS

◀

.719

.706

.328

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.65

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.28

4.29

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.58

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.