New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 18, 2026

NYY

69-55

PregameTue, 6:35 PM EDTMLB.TV

BAL

61-63

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

97 total idx

Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

BAL +0.4 vs NYY +0.2 margin

BAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Will Warren

SP · #29

8-6

W-L

4.42

ERA

1.41

WHIP

117

118.0

Last 3 starts

vsSEA-4.0 IP5 ER3 K

vsSTLL(8-6)5.1 IP3 ER5 K

@CHCW(8-5)6.2 IP0 ER7 K

Home starter

Shane Baz

SP · #34

4-12

W-L

4.00

ERA

1.36

WHIP

122

139.1

Last 3 starts

@MINL(4-12)3.0 IP5 ER2 K

@TEXL(4-11)8.0 IP2 ER9 K

vsPHIL(4-10)6.1 IP1 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob55% / 45%

LeanAway · 5pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesNYY win series 2-1

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

BAL vs NYY.

BAL enters on a 3-game win streak; NYY is 5-5 over its last 10.

44.6%

model · BAL win prob

Recent form

BAL5–5+0.4
NYY5–5+0.2

Situational

BAL2d rest
NYY2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. BAL has 9 straight road games; NYY has 3.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Cam Schlittler · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.7strikeouts · ±1.5
Ryan Weathers · 5.7 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.9.
Shane BazBAL
5.3strikeouts · ±2.8
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.1.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
46.4%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.9%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.3%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.2high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.5± 2.4medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.7± 1.5high

Hits

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.4± 1.2high
Trent GrishamNYY
1.0± 1.0high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
0.9± 1.4high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.5± 3.0high
Trent GrishamNYY
2.3± 3.3high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.7± 3.1high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.3high
Trent GrishamNYY
0.7± 1.3high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

Will WarrenNYY
2.8± 2.4high
Chris BassittBAL
2.5± 2.2low
Shane BazBAL
2.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BAL

.716

OPS

.719

.718

.308

OBP

.318

▶

.321

4.44

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

3.26

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.21

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

The One modelLean

Tue, Aug 18

NYY★

Yankees

80-67

vs55.3%NYY

BAL

Orioles

65-85

NYY 55.3%win prob44.7% BAL

NYY 1524 · BAL 1475Box score→

Team pages

New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

The matchup, end-to-end.

BAL vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league