Recent form
6-4
MIL -0.3 vs LAD -0.9 margin
MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
MIL
MIL
75-47
PregameSat, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
LAD
LAD
73-49
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jacob Misiorowski
SP · #32
11-5
W-L
1.76
ERA
0.74
WHIP
204
K
133.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIN-6.0 IP3 ER9 K
@LAAL(11-5)7.0 IP2 ER10 K
vsCOLW(11-4)5.0 IP1 ER12 K
Home starter
Justin Wrobleski
SP · #70
11-4
W-L
3.44
ERA
1.11
WHIP
94
K
120.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@ARIL(11-4)3.1 IP3 ER3 K
@CHCL(11-3)4.1 IP7 ER4 K
vsSEA-6.0 IP5 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesMIL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs MIL.
LAD is 4-6 recently; MIL is 6-4.
56.9%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD4–6-0.9
- MIL6–4-0.3
Situational
- LAD2d rest
- MIL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; MIL has 4.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.5strikeouts · ±2.6
Jacob Misiorowski · 9.5 K · last-10 9.6 vs season 9.3.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.9strikeouts · ±2.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 5.9 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 6.
- Roki SasakiLAD5.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Roki Sasaki · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
LAD is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-13MIL @ LAD5–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.4%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
56.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.5%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.96 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
132
projections · 103 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.5± 2.6high
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.6± 2.5medium
- Logan HendersonMIL6.5± 2.3low
Hits
- Shohei OhtaniLAD1.2± 1.0high
- Andy PagesLAD1.1± 0.7high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.2± 2.9high
- Jackson ChourioMIL2.0± 2.3high
- Jake BauersMIL1.9± 1.9high
RBIs
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.7± 1.1high
- Brice TurangMIL0.7± 0.8high
- Jake BauersMIL0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Roki SasakiLAD2.7± 2.3high
- Robert GasserMIL2.7± 3.0low
- Kris BubicLAD2.6± 2.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIL
league avg
LAD
.730
OPS
.719
▶.766
.336
OBP
.318
.337
4.89
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.00
3.53
Team ERA
◀
4.17
3.71
1.16
WHIP
1.30
1.17
9.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
9.1
The One modelLean
Sat, Aug 15MIL
Brewers
79-61
vs57.0%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
88-63
MIL 43.0%win prob57.0% LAD
LAD 1549 · MIL 1528Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- White SoxTigers8/15 - 1:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsCubs8/15 - 2:20 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/15 - 3:07 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/15 - 4:05 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/15 - 4:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/15 - 6:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/15 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PhilliesTwins8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/15 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/15 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
