Park factor
98 total idx
PNC Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
BOS
BOS
65-56
PregameSat, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
PIT
PIT
59-64
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sonny Gray
SP · #54
14-3
W-L
2.79
ERA
1.15
WHIP
110
K
125.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@TORL(14-3)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsCHWW(14-2)6.0 IP0 ER8 K
@ATHW(13-2)7.0 IP4 ER5 K
Home starter
Jared Jones
SP · #17
2-4
W-L
5.03
ERA
1.20
WHIP
65
K
59.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYML(2-4)3.0 IP8 ER3 K
@MILL(2-3)4.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsARIL(2-2)6.0 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob65% / 35%
LeanAway · 15pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesPIT wins series 2-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PIT vs BOS.
PIT is 3-7 recently; BOS is 5-5.
35.1%
model · PIT win prob
Recent form
- PIT3–7-0.5
- BOS5–5+2.6
Situational
- PIT2d rest
- BOS2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PIT has 3 straight road games; BOS has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Paul SkenesPIT6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 6.7 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.6.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Braxton Ashcraft · 6.1 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.3.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.5strikeouts · ±2.7
Sonny Gray · 5.5 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.4%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
40.9%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.2%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.9%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.14 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PIT vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 106 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.8± 3.5medium
- Paul SkenesPIT6.7± 2.1high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.1± 2.2high
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 0.8high
- Ronny SimonPIT1.1± 1.2low
- Andruw MonasterioBOS1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.4± 2.7high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.9± 1.6high
- Jarren DuranBOS1.8± 1.9high
RBIs
- Caleb DurbinBOS0.9± 1.2high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS0.9± 1.0high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Braxton AshcraftPIT2.9± 2.2high
- Paul SkenesPIT2.8± 2.0high
- Jared JonesPIT2.6± 3.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
PIT
.722
OPS
.719
▶.746
.321
OBP
.318
▶.334
4.45
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.02
3.48
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.32
1.22
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.32
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 15BOS★
Red Sox
75-70
vs64.9%BOS
PIT
Pirates
64-72
BOS 64.9%win prob35.1% PIT
BOS 1566 · PIT 1479Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- White SoxTigers8/15 - 1:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsCubs8/15 - 2:20 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/15 - 3:07 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/15 - 4:05 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/15 - 4:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/15 - 6:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/15 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PhilliesTwins8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/15 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/15 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
