Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
BAL
BAL
59-63
PregameSat, 6:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
TB
TB
74-47
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Line movement
200 snapshots
TB spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 8.0 · -0.5
TB no-vig %
57.3%
open 57.5% · -0.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kyle Bradish
SP · #38
7-11
W-L
3.69
ERA
1.34
WHIP
121
K
127.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@TEXL(7-11)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsPHIL(7-10)3.0 IP2 ER3 K
@DET-4.2 IP5 ER4 K
Home starter
Ian Seymour
SP · #61
9-3
W-L
4.08
ERA
1.13
WHIP
106
K
90.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEAW(9-3)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@COLW(8-3)6.0 IP2 ER9 K
vsTEXW(7-3)4.2 IP0 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+124 / -150
Model edge
Win prob31% / 70%
LeanHome · 20pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBAL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take TB on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
TB vs BAL.
TB is 9-1 recently; BAL is 5-5.
69.5%
model · TB win prob
Recent form
- TB9–1+3.0
- BAL5–5+0.0
Situational
- TB1d restB2B
- BAL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TB has 0 straight road games; BAL has 7.
Model angle
+12.2ppon TB
TB's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Head to head is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▲Travel burden+1.1pp
Players to watch
- Kyle BradishBAL5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Kyle Bradish · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
- Shane BazBAL5.3strikeouts · ±2.8
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.1.
- Trevor RogersBAL5.3strikeouts · ±1.8
Trevor Rogers · 5.3 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 4.6.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
TB is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14BAL @ TB6–5
Line move
open -151→-150flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
69.8%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
71.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
71.3%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
73.4%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.91 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 117 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Kyle BradishBAL5.3± 3.0high
- Shane BazBAL5.3± 2.8high
- Trevor RogersBAL5.3± 1.8high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.6± 1.1high
- Jonathan ArandaTB1.3± 1.1high
- Yandy DiazTB1.3± 1.4high
Total bases
- Junior CamineroTB2.3± 2.6high
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.2± 2.9high
- Yandy DiazTB2.0± 2.4high
RBIs
- Junior CamineroTB1.0± 1.1high
- Jonathan ArandaTB0.9± 1.1high
- Liam HicksTB0.8± 1.5high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.5± 3.3high
- Chris BassittBAL2.5± 2.2low
- Shane BazBAL2.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
TB
.716
OPS
.719
▶.738
.320
OBP
.318
▶.331
4.50
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.58
4.24
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.72
1.35
WHIP
1.30
▶1.15
8.0
K / 9
8.5
▶8.2
The One model★ Lock
Sat, Aug 15BAL
Orioles
63-85
vs69.5%TB
TB★
Rays
102-47
BAL 30.5%win prob69.5% TB
TB 1600 · BAL 1462Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- White SoxTigers8/15 - 1:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsCubs8/15 - 2:20 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/15 - 3:07 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/15 - 4:05 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/15 - 4:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/15 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PhilliesTwins8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/15 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/15 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
