Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
BAL
BAL
58-63
PregameSat, 6:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
TB
TB
74-46
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Trevor Rogers
SP · #28
7-8
W-L
4.21
ERA
1.25
WHIP
102
K
119.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@MINL(7-8)4.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsLAAW(7-7)6.0 IP2 ER9 K
@DET-6.0 IP4 ER6 K
Home starter
Ian Seymour
SP · #61
9-3
W-L
4.08
ERA
1.13
WHIP
106
K
90.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEAW(9-3)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@COLW(8-3)6.0 IP2 ER9 K
vsTEXW(7-3)4.2 IP0 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob29% / 71%
LeanHome · 21pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBAL wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TB vs BAL.
TB enters on a 9-game win streak; BAL is 4-6 over its last 10.
71.1%
model · TB win prob
Recent form
- TB9–1+2.3
- BAL4–6-0.9
Situational
- TB3d rest
- BAL3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TB has 9 straight road games; BAL has 6.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Kyle BradishBAL5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Kyle Bradish · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
- Shane BazBAL5.3strikeouts · ±2.8
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.1.
- Trevor RogersBAL5.3strikeouts · ±1.8
Trevor Rogers · 5.3 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 4.6.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
71.7%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
73.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
73.2%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
74.8%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.78 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 117 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Kyle BradishBAL5.3± 3.0high
- Shane BazBAL5.3± 2.8high
- Trevor RogersBAL5.3± 1.8high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.6± 1.1high
- Jonathan ArandaTB1.3± 1.1high
- Yandy DiazTB1.3± 1.4high
Total bases
- Junior CamineroTB2.4± 2.5high
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.1± 2.9high
- Yandy DiazTB2.0± 2.4high
RBIs
- Junior CamineroTB0.9± 1.2high
- Liam HicksTB0.9± 1.5high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.7± 1.4high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.5± 3.3high
- Shane BazBAL2.5± 1.5high
- Brandon YoungBAL2.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
TB
.715
OPS
.719
▶.739
.320
OBP
.318
▶.331
4.49
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.58
4.24
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.70
1.35
WHIP
1.30
▶1.14
8.0
K / 9
8.5
▶8.2
The One model★ Lock
Sat, Aug 15BAL
Orioles
62-85
vs71.1%TB
TB★
Rays
102-46
BAL 28.9%win prob71.1% TB
TB 1605 · BAL 1456Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
