Recent form
7-3
DET +3.8 vs CHW -0.7 margin
DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW
CHW
62-58
PregameSat, 1:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
DET
DET
60-61
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Anthony Kay
SP · #18
9-5
W-L
3.96
ERA
1.34
WHIP
94
K
116.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCLEW(9-5)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
@TBW(8-5)6.1 IP0 ER3 K
vsNYYL(7-5)5.1 IP3 ER7 K
Home starter
Troy Melton
SP · #52
7-1
W-L
1.46
ERA
0.90
WHIP
69
K
80.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SF-6.0 IP0 ER5 K
@SEAW(7-1)7.0 IP0 ER4 K
vsBALW(6-1)7.0 IP0 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob47% / 53%
LeanHome · 3pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 3-3
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
DET vs CHW.
DET is 7-3 recently; CHW is 4-6.
53.0%
model · DET win prob
Recent form
- DET7–3+3.8
- CHW4–6-0.7
Situational
- DET2d rest
- CHW2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. DET has 0 straight road games; CHW has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3strikeouts · ±2.3
Sean Burke · 7.3 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 6.3.
- Luis CastilloCHW4.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Luis Castillo · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.6.
- Framber ValdezDET4.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.9%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
51.7%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.7%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.34 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
116
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3± 2.3high
- Troy MeltonDET5.7± 2.4low
- Luis CastilloCHW4.5± 2.1high
Hits
- Spencer TorkelsonDET1.2± 0.8high
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.1± 1.0high
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.1± 1.4medium
Total bases
- Eduardo ValenciaDET2.5± 3.4medium
- Chase MeidrothCHW2.1± 2.9high
- Dillon DinglerDET2.0± 2.5high
RBIs
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.0± 1.9medium
- Dillon DinglerDET0.8± 1.0high
- Chase MeidrothCHW0.7± 1.4high
Earned runs
- Davis MartinCHW2.8± 2.7high
- Luis CastilloCHW2.7± 1.8high
- Framber ValdezDET2.6± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
DET
.724
OPS
.719
.727
.317
OBP
.318
.320
4.78
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.56
4.10
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.47
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.20
8.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.3
The One modelTossup
Sat, Aug 15CHW
White Sox
78-65
vs53.0%DET
DET★
Tigers
63-76
CHW 47.0%win prob53.0% DET
DET 1505 · CHW 1516Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
