Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 15, 2026

CHW

62-58

PregameSat, 1:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

DET

60-61

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

7-3

DET +3.8 vs CHW -0.7 margin

DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Anthony Kay

SP · #18

9-5

W-L

3.96

ERA

1.34

WHIP

116.0

Last 3 starts

vsCLEW(9-5)6.0 IP2 ER4 K

@TBW(8-5)6.1 IP0 ER3 K

vsNYYL(7-5)5.1 IP3 ER7 K

Home starter

Troy Melton

SP · #52

7-1

W-L

1.46

ERA

0.90

WHIP

80.0

Last 3 starts

@SF-6.0 IP0 ER5 K

@SEAW(7-1)7.0 IP0 ER4 K

vsBALW(6-1)7.0 IP0 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob47% / 53%

LeanHome · 3pp

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 3-3

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

DET vs CHW.

DET is 7-3 recently; CHW is 4-6.

53.0%

model · DET win prob

Recent form

DET7–3+3.8
CHW4–6-0.7

Situational

DET2d rest
CHW2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. DET has 0 straight road games; CHW has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3strikeouts · ±2.3
Sean Burke · 7.3 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 6.3.
Luis CastilloCHW
4.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Luis Castillo · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.6.
Framber ValdezDET
4.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.4.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
51.7%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.7%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.3high
Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low
Luis CastilloCHW
4.5± 2.1high

Hits

Javier BaezDET
1.2± 1.2high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.2± 1.2high
Spencer TorkelsonDET
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.2± 3.5medium
Dillon DinglerDET
2.0± 2.4high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.8± 2.9high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
0.9± 1.9medium
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Davis MartinCHW
3.2± 3.3high
Luis CastilloCHW
2.7± 1.8high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

DET

.724

OPS

.719

.727

.317

OBP

.318

.320

4.78

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.56

4.10

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.47

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.20

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

The One modelTossup

Sat, Aug 15

CHW

White Sox

78-65

vs53.0%DET

DET★

Tigers

63-76

CHW 47.0%win prob53.0% DET

DET 1505 · CHW 1516Box score→

Team pages

Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

The matchup, end-to-end.

DET vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

DET vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.