Recent form
5-5
MIL -0.7 vs LAD -1.5 margin
MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
MIL
MIL
74-46
PregameThu, 10:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD
72-48
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
S
Shane Drohan
SP · #55
6-4
W-L
3.87
ERA
1.25
WHIP
93
K
93.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIN-5.0 IP6 ER4 K
@LAAW(6-4)6.0 IP2 ER7 K
vsCOLL(5-4)6.0 IP5 ER6 K
Home starter
Roki Sasaki
SP · #11
5-5
W-L
4.54
ERA
1.28
WHIP
106
K
105.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@ARI-6.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsSEAW(5-5)5.1 IP2 ER7 K
@NYMW(4-5)7.0 IP1 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs MIL.
LAD is 3-7 recently; MIL is 5-5.
57.5%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD3–7-1.5
- MIL5–5-0.7
Situational
- LAD2d rest
- MIL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; MIL has 2.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.5strikeouts · ±2.6
Jacob Misiorowski · 9.5 K · last-10 9.6 vs season 9.3.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.9strikeouts · ±2.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 5.9 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 6.
- Roki SasakiLAD5.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Roki Sasaki · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.2%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
56.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.6%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.34 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 103 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.5± 2.6high
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.6± 2.5medium
- Logan HendersonMIL6.5± 2.3low
Hits
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.3± 1.2high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD1.2± 0.9high
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.3± 2.9high
- Jackson ChourioMIL2.3± 2.1high
- Jake BauersMIL2.1± 1.9high
RBIs
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.7± 1.1high
- Jake BauersMIL0.7± 1.1high
- Andy PagesLAD0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Roki SasakiLAD2.7± 2.3high
- Robert GasserMIL2.7± 3.0low
- Kris BubicLAD2.6± 2.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIL
league avg
LAD
.732
OPS
.719
▶.766
.336
OBP
.318
.338
4.91
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.02
3.54
Team ERA
◀
4.16
3.72
1.17
WHIP
1.30
1.16
9.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
9.1
The One modelLean
Thu, Aug 13MIL
Brewers
78-60
vs57.5%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
87-62
MIL 42.5%win prob57.5% LAD
LAD 1551 · MIL 1527Box score→
Team pages
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
