Recent form
8-2
WSH +4.5 vs LV -1.7 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces
WSH
WSH
19-12
PregameTue, 10:00 PM EDTVegas 34, WNBA League Pass, MNMT
LV
LV
22-11
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Las Vegas Aces Tuesday at 8/11 - 10:00 PM EDT. WSH arrives on a 6-game win streak (6-0 in their last 6). LV is 4-4 in their last 8.
Vegas opened LV as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 168.5. LV's moneyline implies a 79% break-even, WSH the inverse.
For bettors: the LV side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 168.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
LV
Home
44
FG %
49
Season series
WSH leads series 1-0
Jul 22LV99@WSH100
LV99@WSH100Aug 12WSH@LVtoday
WSH@LVtodayAug 14WSH@LVupcoming
WSH@LVupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -8.5
Between 7 and 10
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
168.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
WSH+29525%LV-37579%35· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
+1.0 since open
Total
168.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
WSH @ LV
StorylineWSH riding a 7-game win streak.
Rest going in
WSHStandard
2 days
last game Aug 9
LVStandard
2 days
last game Aug 9
Model edge vs market
Pass · split signalSpread
Market
LV -8.5
Model
WSH -41.3
Edge
split
Total
Market
168.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
LV -375
Model
WSH
Edge
fading market
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
WSHmetricLV
19-12
Record
22-11
#3
Conf rank
#3
-0.6
Pt diff
+3.4
W7
Streak
L2
8-2
Last 10
5-5
89.8
Power score
48.5
#1
Power rank
#7
45.0
Sched ahead
81.8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
LV -8.5·O/U 168.5·WSH +295/LV -375
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
LV vs WSH.
LV is 5-5 recently; WSH is 8-2.
74.1%
model · LV win prob
Recent form
- LV5–5-1.7
- WSH8–2+4.5
Situational
- LV2d rest
- WSH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LV has 5 straight road games; WSH has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- A'ja WilsonLV25.7points · ±8.4
A'ja Wilson · 25.7 pts · last-10 25.8 vs season 25.6.
- Jackie YoungLV19.8points · ±7.6
Jackie Young · 19.8 pts · last-10 21.1 vs season 18.
- Shakira AustinWSH18.8points · ±4.5
Shakira Austin · 18.8 pts · last-10 20.6 vs season 16.2.
Head-to-head · 1-3 · last 4
LV is 1-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-06-27WSH @ LV94–83
- 2025-07-10LV @ WSH68–70
- 2025-08-23LV @ WSH91–81
- 2026-07-22LV @ WSH99–100
Line move
open -340→-375toward LV
The market has moved 1.7pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
77.8%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
72.1%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
76.6%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
77.1%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.26 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
85% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.63
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+270
Close price
+295
Open no-vig
25.9%
Close no-vig
24.3%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at LV?
- The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
LV vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 95 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.7± 8.4high
- Jackie YoungLV19.8± 7.6high
- Shakira AustinWSH18.8± 4.5high
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH10.3± 3.3high
- A'ja WilsonLV9.2± 3.6high
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.1± 3.0high
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.9± 2.4high
- Jackie YoungLV6.2± 3.8high
- Sonia CitronWSH4.1± 1.8high
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.0± 1.1high
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.6high
- Lauren BettsWSH1.0± 1.3high
Steals
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 1.3high
- A'ja WilsonLV1.2± 0.9high
- Jewell LoydLV1.1± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA