Recent form
6-4
NYY -0.2 vs SEA -2.5 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
SEA
SEA
56-64
PregameThu, 1:35 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
NYY
NYY
67-52
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Logan Gilbert
SP · #36
8-7
W-L
3.42
ERA
1.00
WHIP
145
K
139.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTBL(8-7)6.2 IP2 ER6 K
vsMIN-7.0 IP3 ER6 K
@TEX-5.2 IP3 ER4 K
Home starter
Max Fried
SP · #54
4-3
W-L
2.88
ERA
0.97
WHIP
75
K
81.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATL-6.1 IP0 ER7 K
@CHC-5.1 IP1 ER7 K
@CHW-3.0 IP3 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYY lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs SEA.
NYY is 6-4 recently; SEA is 3-7.
62.4%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY6–4-0.2
- SEA3–7-2.5
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- SEA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; SEA has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY8.1strikeouts · ±2.7
Cam Schlittler · 8.1 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 7.3.
- Logan GilbertSEA6.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Logan Gilbert · 6.6 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.3.
- Bryan WooSEA5.8strikeouts · ±1.7
Bryan Woo · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.8.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
NYY is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-11SEA @ NYY1–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.7%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
62.8%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.2%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY8.1± 2.7high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.6± 2.7low
- Logan GilbertSEA6.6± 2.0high
Hits
- Cole YoungSEA1.2± 1.3high
- Julio RodriguezSEA1.1± 0.7high
- George Lombard Jr.NYY1.0± 0.9low
Total bases
- George Lombard Jr.NYY2.2± 2.9low
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.2± 3.0high
- Cole YoungSEA1.7± 1.7high
RBIs
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.7± 0.9high
- Cal RaleighSEA0.6± 1.1high
- Josh NaylorSEA0.5± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Bryan WooSEA3.1± 2.4high
- Will WarrenNYY2.5± 2.3high
- George KirbySEA2.4± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SEA
league avg
NYY
.681
OPS
.719
▶.720
.307
OBP
.318
.310
3.86
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.50
3.79
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.28
1.20
WHIP
1.30
▶1.17
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 13SEA
Mariners
67-80
vs62.4%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
78-64
SEA 37.6%win prob62.4% NYY
NYY 1532 · SEA 1465Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
