Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 13, 2026

BOS

64-55

PregameThu, 3:07 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV

TOR

58-63

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

BOS +2.6 vs TOR -0.2 margin

BOS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Payton Tolle

SP · #70

7-6

W-L

3.20

ERA

1.10

WHIP

124

107.0

Last 3 starts

vsATHW(7-6)6.0 IP1 ER14 K

@LAD-6.0 IP2 ER7 K

@ATHW(6-6)5.1 IP2 ER7 K

Home starter

Max Scherzer

SP · #31

1-4

W-L

7.25

ERA

1.53

WHIP

36.0

Last 3 starts

@PHI-5.1 IP2 ER4 K

vsSTL-6.0 IP1 ER5 K

@WSH-2.2 IP1 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob71% / 29%

LeanAway · 21pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesTOR leads series 2-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

TOR vs BOS.

TOR is 6-4 recently; BOS is 6-4.

28.7%

model · TOR win prob

Recent form

TOR6–4-0.2
BOS6–4+2.6

Situational

TOR2d rest
BOS2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. TOR has 0 straight road games; BOS has 2.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.5.
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.8strikeouts · ±2.5
Ranger Suarez · 5.8 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 5.4.
Sonny GrayBOS
5.5strikeouts · ±2.7
Sonny Gray · 5.5 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.

Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5

TOR is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-24TOR @ BOS4–6
2026-07-25TOR @ BOS6–0
2026-07-26TOR @ BOS1–6
2026-08-10BOS @ TOR1–2
2026-08-11BOS @ TOR3–5

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

25.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
37.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
32.8%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
36.1%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 2.6high
Payton TolleBOS
6.8± 3.5medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.8± 2.5high

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 1.0high
Alejandro KirkTOR
1.1± 1.2high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.4± 2.7high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.3± 2.8high
Jarren DuranBOS
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.9± 1.0high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.8± 0.9high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
3.2± 3.7low
Shane BieberTOR
2.9± 3.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.3± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

TOR

.721

OPS

◀

.719

.679

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.43

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

3.49

Team ERA

◀

4.16

3.98

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

The One model★ Lock

Thu, Aug 13

BOS★

Red Sox

74-69

vs71.3%BOS

TOR

Blue Jays

62-92

BOS 71.3%win prob28.7% TOR

BOS 1568 · TOR 1453Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

The matchup, end-to-end.

TOR vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league