Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 13, 2026

CLE

59-62

PregameThu, 1:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

DET

59-61

ATS/CLE -1.5O/U/8.5ML/CLE-124

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

7-3

DET +3.7 vs CLE -1.0 margin

DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

46.8%

open 47.6% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Parker Messick

SP · #77

9-6

W-L

2.57

ERA

1.04

WHIP

136

136.2

Last 3 starts

@CHWW(9-6)7.0 IP2 ER8 K

vsARI-4.1 IP1 ER6 K

@TBL(8-6)7.2 IP1 ER6 K

Home starter

Keider Montero

SP · #54

8-7

W-L

3.38

ERA

1.01

WHIP

122.1

Last 3 starts

@SFL(8-7)6.0 IP5 ER5 K

@ATHW(8-6)6.0 IP0 ER2 K

vsBALL(7-6)4.1 IP4 ER1 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money-124 / +115

Model edge

Win prob48% / 52%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

-124Bet CLE ML↗-124Bet CLE ML↗

+115Bet DET ML↗+115Bet DET ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

DET vs CLE.

DET is 7-3 recently; CLE is 3-7.

52.0%

model · DET win prob

Recent form

DET7–3+3.7
CLE3–7-1.0

Situational

DET1d restB2B
CLE1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. DET has 0 straight road games; CLE has 5.

Model angle

+6.3ppon DET

DET's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Line steam is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp
▲Model confidence+3.8pp
▲Travel burden+2.8pp

Players to watch

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.2strikeouts · ±2.8
Gavin Williams · 8.2 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 7.7.
Joey CantilloCLE
6.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Joey Cantillo · 6 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 5.3.
Parker MessickCLE
5.6strikeouts · ±3.1
Parker Messick · 5.6 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.7.

Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2

DET is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-11CLE @ DET4–6
2026-08-12CLE @ DET6–4

Line move

open +101→+104toward CLE

The market has moved 0.7pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
50.3%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like DET.

DET's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+6.3

pp edge · DET

-1.95

CLV pp · steam

3.2u · large

on DET

53.4%

±5.7pp band

3.22u large — +6.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+7.7pp

+1.4pp post-cal

Kelly

12.9%

3.2% sized

Decimal

2.15

+6.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.3pp · DET over CLE

▲
Model confidence90% conf
DET clears the model's lock threshold.
+3.8pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
CLE is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+2.8pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
DET's venue form is 8.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.0pp
▼
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.8pp away from DET since open.
-0.8pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
CLE has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.5pp

Open price

+101

Close price

+115

Open no-vig

47.6%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.3pp

best edge · DET · DraftKings

CLE

no live price

DET

★ best

+115DraftKings

edge +6.3pp · implied 45.7%

Book	CLE	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	-124	+115★	+6.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.2± 2.8high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.0± 2.3high
Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.4± 0.8high
Chase DeLauterCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Javier BaezDET
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.2± 3.5medium
Chase DeLauterCLE
2.0± 1.9high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
0.9± 1.9medium
Angel MartinezCLE
0.8± 1.9high
Nathaniel LoweCLE
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Tanner BibeeCLE
2.6± 1.8high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.1high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

DET

.684

OPS

.719

▶

.727

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.320

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

3.84

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.50

1.27

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

The One modelTossup

Thu, Aug 13

CLE

Guardians

79-68

vs52.0%DET

DET★

Tigers

62-76

CLE 48.0%win prob52.0% DET

DET 1500 · CLE 1522Box score→

Team pages

Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

The matchup, end-to-end.

Pick a side.

DET vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like DET.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.