Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at IND?

The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

20-13

PregameTue, 7:30 PM EDTESPN

IND

20-12

ATS/IND -4.5O/U/191.5ML/IND-170

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

IND +9.7 vs NY +3.9 margin

IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+1.0 days

IND 3 rest vs NY 2

IND has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+40.9

IND Elo vs NY Elo

IND owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing NY uphill early today again.

WNBATue, Aug 118/11 - 7:30 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasIND -4.5

Preview · WNBA

ew York Liberty visit Indiana Fever Tuesday at 8/11 - 7:30 PM EDT. NY arrives on a 4-game win streak (6-1 in their last 7). IND is 4-2 in their last 6.

Vegas opened IND as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 191.5. IND's moneyline implies a 63% break-even, NY the inverse.

For bettors: the IND side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 191.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

IND

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 7

IND75@

NY83

Jul 19

NY88@

IND108

Aug 11

NY@

INDtoday

Aug 22

IND@

NYupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

191.5

High-scoring · +26.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+14241%

IND-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -4.5↗SpreadBet IND -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

191.5

0.0 since open

Scouting report

NY @ IND

8/11 - 7:30 PM EDT

StorylineNY riding a 4-game win streak.

Rest going in

IND +1 day

NYStandard

1 day

last game Aug 9

INDStandard

2 days

last game Aug 8

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

IND -4.5

Model

NY -11.1

Edge

split

Total

Market

191.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

IND -170

Model

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

NYmetricIND

20-13

Record

20-12

Conf rank

+3.7

Pt diff

+5.5

Streak

7-3

Last 10

7-3

82.9

Power score

71.8

Power rank

51.5

Sched ahead

72.4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

IND -4.5·O/U 191.5·NY +142/IND -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

IND vs NY.

IND is 7-3 recently; NY is 7-3.

65.9%

model · IND win prob

Recent form

IND7–3+9.7
NY7–3+3.9

Situational

IND3d rest
NY2d rest
+1.0d differential

IND has 1 more rest day. IND has 1 straight road games; NY has 0.

Model angle

+5.5ppon IND

IND's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+2.6pp
▲Venue split+2.6pp
▲Rest advantage+0.9pp

Players to watch

Kelsey MitchellIND
26.2points · ±4.8
Kelsey Mitchell · 26.2 pts · last-10 28 vs season 23.6.
Caitlin ClarkIND
22.8points · ±9.3
Caitlin Clark · 22.8 pts · last-10 24.2 vs season 20.7.
Breanna StewartNY
21.4points · ±8.4
Breanna Stewart · 21.4 pts · last-10 22 vs season 20.4.

Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5

IND is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-14NY @ IND88–102
2025-07-16IND @ NY77–98
2025-07-23IND @ NY84–98
2026-06-06IND @ NY75–83
2026-07-18NY @ IND88–108

Line move

open -175→-170toward NY

The market has moved 0.7pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
65.4%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
63.4%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
62.4%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like IND.

IND's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag.

+5.5

pp edge · IND

-0.55

CLV pp

2.4u · medium

on IND

66.5%

±8.7pp band

2.38u medium — +3.5pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+6.1pp

+0.6pp post-cal

Kelly

9.5%

2.4% sized

Decimal

1.59

+3.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.5pp · IND over NY

▲
Model confidence82% conf
IND grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+2.6pp
▲
Venue split70% conf
IND's venue form is 18.3pp stronger in the recent sample.
+2.6pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
IND has 3 days rest; NY has 2.
+0.9pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
NY has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Market faded the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at IND?: The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.5pp

best edge · IND · DraftKings

no live price

IND

★ best

-170DraftKings

edge +5.5pp · implied 60.4%

Book	NY	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+142	-170★	+5.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
26.2± 4.8high
Caitlin ClarkIND
22.8± 9.3high
Breanna StewartNY
21.4± 8.4high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.0± 3.1high
Breanna StewartNY
8.7± 3.2high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.6± 3.7high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
8.2± 2.2high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.9± 2.5high
Breanna StewartNY
3.9± 2.5high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.7± 0.9high
Makayla TimpsonIND
1.0± 1.3high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.0± 0.7high

Steals

Aliyah BostonIND
1.7± 1.6high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.3± 1.4high
Caitlin ClarkIND
1.2± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New York LibertyIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

New York Liberty at Indiana Fever

IND vs NY.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like IND.

Where to bet this game.

IND vs NY.