New York Liberty at Indiana Fever
NY
11-5
IND
9-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Indiana Fever Tuesday at 8/11 - 7:30 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7. IND is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
IND
Home
46
FG %
46
Season series
NY leads series 1-0
IND75@NY83NY@INDupcomingNY@INDtodayIND@NYupcomingScouting report
NY @ IND
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -22.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-5
Record
9-7
#2
Conf rank
#3
+6.0
Pt diff
+2.7
L1
Streak
L2
8-2
Last 10
5-5
84.0
Power score
61.2
#2
Power rank
#6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.1%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.9± 5.4medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.8± 9.1medium
- Breanna StewartNY18.7± 8.0medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.5± 4.0medium
- Aliyah BostonIND8.6± 2.3medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.3medium
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.6± 3.2medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
- Aliyah BostonIND3.3± 1.7medium
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.6medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.3± 2.4medium
Steals
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Aliyah BostonIND0.9± 0.9medium
- Kelsey MitchellIND0.9± 1.2medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
IND
46.1%
FG%
44.6
46.4%
34.8%
3PT %
33.5
34.8%
88.6
PPG
85.9
▶92.4
21.0
Assists / G
18.0
20.9
14.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.5