Recent form
9-1
MIN +9.4 vs POR +0.1 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Minnesota Lynx at Portland Fire
MIN
MIN
27-7
PregameWed, 10:00 PM EDTFox 12 Plus, WNBA League Pass, Victory+ MIN
POR
POR
13-19
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit Portland Fire Wednesday at 8/12 - 10:00 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7.
Vegas opened MIN as a 12.5-point favorite with the total at 185.5. POR's moneyline implies a 14% break-even, MIN the inverse.
For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 185.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedTotal ↗ 1.0pt over 6.3hjust now
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
POR
Home
48
FG %
45
Season series
MIN leads series 2-0
Jun 16POR74@MIN107
POR74@MIN107Jul 19POR93@MIN101
POR93@MIN101Aug 13MIN@PORtoday
MIN@PORtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -12.5
Between 10 and —
Total
185.5
High-scoring · +20.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
MIN-90090%POR+60014%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 103 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
12.5
0.0 since open
Total
185.5
+1.0 since open
Scouting report
MIN @ POR
Rest going in
POR +1 day
MINLong rest
3 days
last game Aug 9
PORLong rest
4 days
last game Aug 8
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
MIN -12.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
185.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
MIN -900
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
MINmetricPOR
27-7
Record
13-19
#1
Conf rank
#5
+9.1
Pt diff
-4.8
W2
Streak
W2
9-1
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
MIN -12.5·O/U 185.5·MIN -900/POR +600
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
POR vs MIN.
POR is 4-6 recently; MIN is 9-1.
19.4%
model · POR win prob
Recent form
- POR4–6+0.1
- MIN9–1+9.4
Situational
- POR4d rest
- MIN3d rest
- +1.0d differential
POR has 1 more rest day. POR has 0 straight road games; MIN has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kayla McBrideMIN20.2points · ±10.1
Kayla McBride · 20.2 pts · last-10 21.5 vs season 18.2.
- Olivia MilesMIN20.0points · ±7.0
Olivia Miles · 20 pts · last-10 20.7 vs season 19.
- Bridget CarletonPOR15.8points · ±7.0
Bridget Carleton · 15.8 pts · last-10 16.7 vs season 14.4.
Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2
POR is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-15POR @ MIN74–107
- 2026-07-18POR @ MIN93–101
Line move
open +600→+600flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
20.4%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
27.4%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
31.9%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
26.4%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.38 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+600
Close price
+600
Open no-vig
13.7%
Close no-vig
13.7%
Line barely moved
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at POR?
- The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
POR vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 105 high confidence
Points
- Kayla McBrideMIN20.2± 10.1high
- Olivia MilesMIN20.0± 7.0high
- Napheesa CollierMIN19.0± 4.5low
Rebounds
- Napheesa CollierMIN7.3± 2.3low
- Natasha HowardMIN6.8± 2.5high
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.2± 3.3high
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR6.9± 3.5high
- Olivia MilesMIN6.6± 3.4high
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.8± 2.3high
Blocks
- Napheesa CollierMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Natasha HowardMIN0.9± 1.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR0.9± 0.5high
Steals
- Napheesa CollierMIN1.7± 1.5low
- Natasha HowardMIN1.7± 1.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.6± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA