Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at NYM?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 25, 2026

FINAL+1LAD

LAD

67-38

NYM

43-62

Citi Field · Queens, New York

36,356 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

40.7%

open 41.4% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

28.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
37.9%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.3%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
36.6%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.63

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-159

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

58.6%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at NYM?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.6pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

NYM

★ best

+610DraftKings

edge +16.6pp · implied 13.2%

Book	LAD	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-1220	+610★	+16.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.7± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Andy PagesLAD
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.4high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.2± 2.1high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.1± 1.1high

RBIs

Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high
Tommy EdmanLAD
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

NYM

.772

OPS

◀

.720

.683

.340

OBP

◀

.318

.303

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

3.70

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.10

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

9.1

K / 9

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 4 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
NYM	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.282	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. PagesCF	.266	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.299	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
M. BettsSS	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Edman2B	.330	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.241	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
T. HernándezLF	.247	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
D. RushingC	.243	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		34	4	8	3	1	2	9

Player

.282

.266

.299

.259

.232

.330

.241

.247

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. YamamotoSP	6.0	5	1	1	3	5	100
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
E. HenriquezRP	0.2	0	2	2	1	2	20
T. ScottRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	6
B. StewartRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	6	3	3	6	11	153

Player

Y. YamamotoSP

6.0

100

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.263	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
F. LindorSS	.224	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
B. Bichette3B	.255	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. BengeRF	.260	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Robert Jr.CF	.210	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. PolancoDH	.154	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.204	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.224	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
F. AlvarezC	.260	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
T. TaylorLF	.234	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. Young1B	.255	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	6	3	0	6	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. McLeanSP	6.0	7	4	2	2	7	96
D. DuarteRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	26
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	8	4	2	2	9	129

Team

LAD

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.