Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 21, 2026

FINAL

PIT

57-57

NYY

63-50

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

NYY no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.7% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.0pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

NYY

★ best

-131DraftKings

edge +2.0pp · implied 54.2%

Book	PIT	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+109	-131★	+2.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.1high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.9high
Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.6± 1.2high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.5± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

NYY

.749

OPS

◀

.720

.724

.335

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.59

4.29

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.37

1.32

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 0 · NYY 0 (tied)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Team pages

Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Yankees

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant