Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at KC?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 2, 2026

FINAL+3TB

51-33

35-53

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

16,814 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

KC no-vig %

47.8%

open 46.8% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

25.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
35.1%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
34.9%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
34.1%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at KC?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.6pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

+127DraftKings

edge +32.6pp · implied 41.4%

no live price

Book	TB	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	+127★	-166	+32.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Griffin JaxTB
4.9± 2.4high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.3high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.1± 0.9high
Nick FortesTB
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

John RaveKC
2.0± 3.3low
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.8high
Luke MaileKC
1.8± 2.3low

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.9low
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.7± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high
Luinder AvilaKC
2.6± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.729

OPS

◀

.720

.713

.329

OBP

◀

.318

.314

4.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

3.68

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.84

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 5 · KC 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
KC	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.326	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. Aranda1B	.292	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.288	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.188	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SimpsonLF	.278	4	2	3	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.217	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
T. WallsSS	.232	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
R. Palacios2B	.227	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.238	4	0	3	1	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.236	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.264	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.254	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	11	5	1	3	3

Player

.326

.292

.288

.188

.278

.217

.232

.227

.238

.236

.264

.254

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SeymourSP	6.0	3	1	1	1	8	83
C. BooserRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	15
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	5	2	2	1	10	116

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.251	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.264	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.213	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Loftin3B	.224	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Massey2B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. CollinsLF	.232	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
K. MisnerCF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	2	5	2	2	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KolekSP	2.0	4	3	3	1	0	51
R. DobnakSP	4.0	6	2	2	1	2	64
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
S. CruzRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	11	5	5	3	3	152

Team

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.