Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at COL?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 2, 2026

FINAL+10COL

MIA

46-42

414

COL

35-53

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

19,595 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 12.0

COL no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
39.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.5%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.2%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.91

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-126

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

56.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at COL?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.1pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+119DraftKings

edge +24.1pp · implied 42.9%

COL

no live price

Book	MIA	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	+119★	-155	+24.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.1± 0.9high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.0± 3.3high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

COL

.732

OPS

.719

▶

.743

.325

OBP

.318

.324

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.80

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.46

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.51

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

MIA 4 · COL 14 (by 10)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
COL	1	0	2	2	0	7	0	2	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.279	4	1	0	1	0	0	0
O. LopezSS	.336	5	2	3	0	0	0	0
K. Stowers1B	.231	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
X. Edwards2B	.301	2	0	0	2	0	1	0
G. ConineRF	.269	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
O. CaissieRF	.239	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.187	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Sanoja3B	.281	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Jimenez3B	.209	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.218	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	6	4	0	6	3

Player

.279

.336

.231

.301

.269

.239

.187

.281

.250

.209

.218

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Sanoja3B	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	18
R. GustoSP	3.0	4	3	3	2	2	51
J. KingRP	2.0	1	2	2	1	1	28
C. FaucherRP	0.1	3	4	4	1	1	14
C. GibsonRP	1.2	4	3	3	0	0	34
Team	8.0	14	14	14	5	4	145

Player

1.0

3.0

2.0

0.1

1.2

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.298	4	3	2	4	1	1	1
M. MoniakLF	.280	5	3	3	2	1	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.293	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
W. Castro2B	.270	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.315	4	1	2	2	0	1	0
C. CarriggCF	.269	3	1	1	2	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.255	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. SullivanC	.219	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
E. Julien2B	.231	3	2	1	0	0	2	0
E. TovarSS	.204	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	14	14	14	2	5	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	4.1	3	4	2	6	1	95
B. BernardinoRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	15
V. VodnikRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	12
Z. AgnosRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	26
Team	9.0	6	4	2	6	3	148

Team

MIA

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.