Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at SF?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 27, 2026

FINAL+5SF

ATL

49-32

34-48

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

35,140 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

SF no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
51.5%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.2%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.87

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at SF?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+52.6pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +52.6pp · implied 0.0%

Book	ATL	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	+108	—★	+52.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SF vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Landen RouppSF
4.9± 2.0high
Robbie RaySF
4.8± 1.8high

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 1.4high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.7high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.0± 4.7low
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.3± 3.1low
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleSF
3.0± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

.732

OPS

.720

.725

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.91

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.38

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

ATL 0 · SF 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SF	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Atlanta BravesSan Francisco Giants

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Harris IICF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. Albies2B	.277	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. DubonLF	.267	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.212	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.221	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. KimSS	.070	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
Team		28	0	1	0	0	3	7

Player

.300

.277

.270

.260

.275

.267

.212

.221

.070

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	4.0	5	5	5	1	4	69
G. HolmesSP	4.0	1	0	0	0	4	47
Team	8.0	6	5	5	1	8	116

Player

B. ElderSP

4.0

G. HolmesSP

4.0

Team

8.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.320	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.290	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. LeeRF	.323	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.240	3	2	2	4	2	0	1
W. AdamesSS	.230	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. EldridgeDH	.279	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Chapman3B	.237	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. GilbertCF	.228	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. CavanaughC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	5	6	5	2	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WebbSP	7.0	1	0	0	2	6	92
R. WalkerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	23
S. HentgesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	1	0	0	3	7	126

Team

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SF vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SF vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.