Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at STL?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 27, 2026

FINAL+4MIA

MIA

44-39

STL

42-38

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

25,876 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.4%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at STL?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.8pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

STL

★ best

+164DraftKings

edge +17.8pp · implied 35.6%

Book	MIA	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	-219	+164★	+17.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.5± 1.9high
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high

Hits

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.2± 1.2high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
1.7± 2.4high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
2.4± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

STL

.734

OPS

◀

.720

.691

.326

OBP

◀

.318

.314

4.41

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

4.03

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.17

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 5 · STL 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	5
STL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.298	5	1	3	1	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.336	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
K. Stowers1B	.230	3	0	2	2	0	1	0
H. HernandezLF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. CaissieRF	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.199	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
G. ConineRF	.225	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.260	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
J. MackC	.252	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. RuizRF	.269	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	13	5	0	2	6

Player

.298

.336

.230

.222

.227

.199

.225

.260

.252

.269

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GustoSP	3.1	3	0	0	1	4	63
J. KingRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	13
L. BacharRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	1	31
A. BenderRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	20
T. ZuberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	9	137

Player

3.1

1.1

2.0

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.262	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.282	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.290	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
L. NootbaarLF	.308	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
M. WinnSS	.243	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. TorresLF	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.157	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. ChurchCF	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. FerminLF	.271	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	7	1	0	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	6.2	11	5	5	1	4	98
M. SvansonRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	11
J. BruihlRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	21
Team	9.0	13	5	5	2	6	130

Team

MIA

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

STL vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.