Park factor
98 total idx
Angel Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
ATH
ATH
36-37
PregameSat, 9:38 PM EDT
LAA
LAA
30-44
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketAngel Stadium · Anaheim, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jack Perkins
RP · #50
2-3
W-L
6.15
ERA
1.39
WHIP
49
K
41.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPIT-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
vsMIL-4.0 IP3 ER4 K
@HOUL(2-3)4.0 IP5 ER6 K
Home starter
Reid Detmers
SP · #48
3-5
W-L
3.68
ERA
1.00
WHIP
100
K
88.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@ARIW(3-5)7.0 IP0 ER3 K
vsHOU-7.0 IP1 ER9 K
@LAD-6.0 IP0 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesATH wins series 3-1
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · ATH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAA vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 82 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA6.8± 3.7medium
- Jose SorianoLAA5.6± 1.9medium
- Gage JumpATH4.8± 1.7low
Hits
- Jo AdellLAA1.4± 1.5high
- Nick KurtzATH1.3± 1.0high
- Zack GelofATH1.3± 0.7high
Total bases
- Nick KurtzATH3.0± 3.3high
- Zack GelofATH2.5± 2.0high
- Tyler SoderstromATH2.2± 3.0high
RBIs
- Nick KurtzATH1.2± 1.6high
- Tyler SoderstromATH0.8± 1.3high
- Trey ManciniLAA0.8± 1.1low
Earned runs
- Luis MoralesATH5.0± 0.3low
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.2± 1.8medium
- Jose SorianoLAA2.3± 2.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
LAA
.751
OPS
◀
.717
.714
.331
OBP
◀
.319
.319
4.60
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.50
4.81
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.55
1.44
WHIP
1.31
▶1.42
8.2
K / 9
8.5
▶8.8
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
