Matchup orbital

4
ATL
ATL
15-7
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME

2
PHI
PHI
8-13
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ATL wins
ATL 4 · PHI 2 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked ATL +1pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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ATL15-7
ATL
8-13PHI
PHI

Recap · MLB
tlanta Braves went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 4–2.
ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page


Current series
ATL wins series 3-0
ATL9@
PHI0
ATL3@
PHI1
ATL4@
PHI2todaySeason series
ATL leads series 3-0
ATL9@
PHI0
ATL3@
PHI1
ATL4@
PHI2today
PHI3@
ATL5
PHI8@
ATL5
PHI2@
ATL6
ATL@
PHIupcoming
ATL@
PHIupcoming
ATL@
PHIupcoming
ATL@
PHIupcoming
PHI@
ATLupcoming
PHI@
ATLupcoming
PHI@
ATLupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ATL-11854%
PHI-10250%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 3 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning
ATL
M. Harris II
CFBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

G. Holmes
SPStarting pitcher
4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB
PHI
K. Schwarber
LFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

A. Painter
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB
How it ended
ATL beat PHI 4-2.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
PHI vs ATL
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSchwarber · homered to right center (381 feet), Turner scored.
Harris II · homered to right (376 feet).
Albies · doubled to left, Olson scored, Riley to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · PHI won 1
Inn 1
Schwarber 2
Inn 2
Inn 3
II 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Olson 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
Turner struck out swinging.
ATL 4·PHI 2
−10pp
Albies doubled to left, Olson scored, Riley to third.
ATL 4·PHI 2
−12pp
Baldwin walked, Acuña Jr. to second, Harris II to third.
ATL 1·PHI 2
−10pp
Yastrzemski doubled to center, Albies to third.
ATL 1·PHI 2
−10pp
Harris II homered to right (376 feet).
ATL 1·PHI 2
−12pp
Schwarber homered to right center (381 feet), Turner scored.
ATL 0·PHI 2
+16pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
PHI
Home
8
Hits
6
0
Errors
0
4
Runs
2
Player box score

ATL
15-7

R. Acuna Jr.★
RF
OPS
0.650
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Baldwin★
C
OPS
0.200
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

M. Olson★
1B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-5
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0

A. Riley★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

O. Albies★
2B
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

M. Yastrzemski★
LF
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Smith★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

M. Dubon★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

M. Harris II★
CF
OPS
3.000
H-AB
3-3
R
2
RBI
1
HR
1

E. White
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
8-35
R
4
RBI
4
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() R. Acuna Jr.★RF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.650 |
![]() D. Baldwin★C | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
![]() M. Olson★1B | 0-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() A. Riley★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() O. Albies★2B | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.833 |
![]() M. Yastrzemski★LF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
![]() D. Smith★1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() M. Dubon★SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() M. Harris II★CF | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3.000 |
![]() E. WhiteCF | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 8-35 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — |

G. Holmes★
SP
IP
4.2
H
4
ER
2
K
4

A. Bummer
RP
IP
0.1
H
1
ER
0
K
0

T. Kinley
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1

D. Lee
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0

R. Suarez
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1

R. Iglesias
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
6
ER
2
K
7
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() G. Holmes★SP | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
![]() A. BummerRP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
![]() T. KinleyRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() D. LeeRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() R. SuarezRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() R. IglesiasRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |

PHI
8-13

T. Turner★
SS
OPS
0.400
H-AB
1-5
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

K. Schwarber★
LF
OPS
1.850
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1

B. Harper★
1B
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

A. Garcia★
RF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

B. Marsh★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

A. Bohm★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

B. Stott★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

R. Marchan★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Crawford★
CF
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
6-33
R
2
RBI
2
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() T. Turner★SS | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
![]() K. Schwarber★LF | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.850 |
![]() B. Harper★1B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
![]() A. Garcia★RF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() B. Marsh★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() A. Bohm★3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() B. Stott★2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() R. Marchan★C | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() J. Crawford★CF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
| Team | 6-33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |

A. Painter★
SP
IP
4.0
H
5
ER
3
K
4

T. Mayza
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
1
K
2

C. Shugart
RP
IP
0.2
H
1
ER
0
K
1

K. Backhus
RP
IP
1.1
H
0
ER
0
K
1

O. Kerkering
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0

S. Johnson
SP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
8
ER
4
K
9
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() A. Painter★SP | 4.0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
![]() T. MayzaRP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
![]() C. ShugartRP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
![]() K. BackhusRP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() O. KerkeringRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() S. JohnsonSP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
Betting line
ATL -1.5·O/U 8·ATL -118/PHI -102