MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6PHI

PHI

23-23

PIT

24-22

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

31,296 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

PIT no-vig %

39.2%

open 39.7% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
44.7%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.6%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.3%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+141

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

39.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.1pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

PIT

★ best

+141DraftKings

edge +2.1pp · implied 39.7%

Book	PHI	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	-171	+141★	+2.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.7low

Hits

Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.2high
Spencer HorwitzPIT
2.0± 2.1high
Tyler CallihanPIT
1.9± 3.7low

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.1high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.8± 1.8low

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

PIT

.684

OPS

.715

▶

.740

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.04

4.05

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.27

1.30

WHIP

1.31

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 6 · PIT 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. TurnerSS	.237	4	2	2	1	0	1	1
K. SchwarberDH	.237	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
B. Harper1B	.283	3	1	1	3	1	2	2
A. Bohm3B	.201	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.331	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. GarciaRF	.220	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
B. Stott2B	.216	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.223	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. CrawfordCF	.271	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
Team		35	6	8	5	1	8	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.237

.237

.283

.201

.331

.220

.216

.223

.271

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. SanchezSP	9.0	6	0	0	0	13	108
Team	9.0	6	0	0	0	13	108

Player

C. SanchezSP

9.0

108

Team

9.0

108

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
O. CruzCF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. GriffinSS	.260	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.259	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.182	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
R. O'HearnRF	.289	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.320	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. TrioloSS	.234	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. DavisC	.146	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Yorke3B	.197	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	0	6	0	0	0	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. ChandlerSP	3.0	3	5	4	4	2	73
E. SiskRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	3	36
I. MattsonRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	25
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	13
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	17
B. BidoisRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	19
Team	9.0	8	6	5	8	11	183

Team

PHI

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

PIT vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.