• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3DET
MIL

MIL

13-10

2
5
DET

DET

13-12

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
20,378 attended

Line movement

32 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%DET NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIL 2 · DET 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0010000102
DET000220015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    85
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    83
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 95
    84
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    107
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 94
    85
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    154
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 22·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1/VegasDET -136

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Milwaukee Brewers, 5–2.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Luis Rengifo

Luis Rengifo

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Colt Keith

Colt Keith

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL13-10
2
5
DET13-12
MIL13-10·DET13-12
MIL

MIL

13-10

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33100021
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44011002
SPRINT24.96
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT2744
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-44000001
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-33000012
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT29.294
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44010000
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-33000011
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
1-11110010
SPRINT27.148
Team6-3232262059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. HallD. Hall★RP
2.0000220
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
4.0644121
C. RodriguezC. RodriguezRP
2.0311021
Team8.0955362
DET

DET

13-12

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-33111011
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-33010011
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
0-11000000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44120002
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44112100
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000001
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.735
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44110000
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-22000010
C. KeithC. Keith3B
2-33021000
SPRINT28.381
Team9-3232595236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
6.0311370
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0000010
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0211000
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0100210
Team9.0622590

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • C. Patrick
    80 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      43%·88.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.7 mph·9% whiff
    • SV
      18%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Rodriguez
    35 pitches·34% CSW
    • CH
      40%·87.3 mph·57% whiff
    • FC
      40%·89.7 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·86.1 mph·100% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    88 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      31%·87.2 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      25%·86.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      3%·80.5 mph·— whiff
  • K. Jansen
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      83%·91.8 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
  • W. Vest
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FS
      57%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

2

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Apr 21MILMIL12@DETDET4
Apr 22MILMIL2@DETDET5today
Apr 23MILMIL4@DETDET5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 21MILMIL12@DETDET4
Apr 22MILMIL2@DETDET5today
Apr 23MILMIL4@DETDET5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL+11347%
DETDET-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 4th Inning

MILMIL
L. Rengifo

L. Rengifo

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Patrick

C. Patrick

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

DETDET
C. Keith

C. Keith

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

DET beat MIL 5-2. Torkelson's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 60% WP

Contreras · singled to center, Turang scored.

DETBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+22pp→ 67% WP

Torkelson · homered to left center (400 feet), Greene scored.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 82% WP

McGonigle · doubled to right, Báez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0010000102
DET00022001—5

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

5

6

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

6

TB

17

0

HR

2

5

BB

3

9

K

6

17

LOB

11

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8·MIL +113/DET -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

DET vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Contreras 1

0
2

Inn 4

Torkelson 2

0
2

Inn 5

McGonigle 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Bauers 1

Carpenter 1

0

Inn 9

MIL
DET

Play-by-play · 569 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  2. T9

    Turang grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  6. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Brice Turang

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  7. T9

    Jones ran for Rengifo

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  8. T9

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  9. T9

    Rengifo walked, Hamilton to second, Lockridge to third.

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

    −5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  16. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Luis Rengifo

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  17. T9

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  18. T9

    Hamilton walked.

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

    −2pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  25. T9

    Lockridge to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  26. T9

    Lockridge to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  28. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to David Hamilton

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  29. T9

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

  30. T9

    Frelick lined out to right.

    · ·

    MIL 2·DET 5

    +2pp

Player projections

DET vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.9%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.6%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586