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THE ONE Analytics
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CHC logo
CHC
0
LiveBot 5th
TEX logo
TEX
5
Updated 8:49 PM ET
BOT 5TH+5TEX↑
CHC

CHC

27-12

0
5
TEX

TEX

17-21

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

69.4%

TEX wins · current

Pre-game: 58.7% CHC

CHC 0 · 5 TEX

TEX +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5
away leadsTEX leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingTEXBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
    +10pp→ 84% WP

    Pederson · doubled to left, Carter scored.

  • ↑SwingTEXBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
    +7pp→ 70% WP

    Nimmo · flied out to center.

  • ↑SwingTEXTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
    +8pp→ 66% WP

    Kyle Higashioka · challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Seiya Suzuki called out on strikes.

  • ↑SwingCHCTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
    +11pp→ 41% WP

    Conforto · walked.

  • ↺Lead flipTEXBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
    +12pp→ 56% WP

    Jung · homered to right center (389 feet).

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.72

E. Cabrera

3-0 · 3.27 ERA

vs

J. Leiter

1-3 · 5.45 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TEX no-vig %

43.7%

open 44.9% · -1.2

+2.0-0.5TEX SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL48.9%38.8%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 41.3%May 8, 4 PMMay 9, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
CHC0

CHC★

Cubs

27-12

vs58.7%CHC

TEX

Rangers

17-22

TEX4
CHC 58.7%win prob41.3% TEX
CHC 1578 · TEX 1492Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+57.7ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

3

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market came to the model

MLB·Sat, May 9·Bot 5th/SeriesCHC lead series 1-0/VegasCHC -130
Updated 0s ago

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Jung

Josh Jung

3B

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 5th
CHC27-12
0
5
TEX17-21
CHC27-12·TEX17-21
CHC

CHC

27-12

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B0-33000000
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF1-22010010
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B0-33000002
I. HappI. Happ★LF0-22000012
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF0-22000011
M. BuschM. Busch★1B1-22010011
C. KellyC. Kelly★C0-11000010
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF0-22000000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS1-22010001
Team3-1919030057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP4.1755142
Team4.1755142
TEX

TEX

17-21

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF0-33000001
E. DuranE. Duran★LF0-22000000
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS0-22000002
J. JungJ. Jung★3B2-22121100
E. CarterE. Carter★CF0-11200010
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★1B2-22121000
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF2-22022000
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C0-22000001
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★1B1-22111100
Team7-1818575214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP4.2300560
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP0.1000010
Team5.0300570

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • E. Cabrera
    78 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      35%·92.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      24%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.7 mph·17% whiff

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    97 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.9 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.8 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      14%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Beeks
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • CH
      80%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

7

0

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHC lead series 1-0

May 9CHCCHC7@TEXTEX1
May 9CHCCHC@TEXTEXtoday
May 10CHCCHC@TEXTEXupcoming

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

May 9CHCCHC7@TEXTEX1
May 9CHCCHC@TEXTEXtoday
May 10CHCCHC@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-13057%
TEXTEX+10848%

↗6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
CHCCHCSP
E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

#30 · 3-0

ERA

3.27

K

37

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/4vsCINCIN6.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K-
4/29@SDSD5.2 IP · 3 ER · 7 KW(3-0)
4/23vsPHIPHI7.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-
VS
TEXTEXSP
J. Leiter

J. Leiter

#22 · 1-3

ERA

5.45

K

43

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@DETDET6.2 IP · 5 ER · 10 KL(1-3)
4/28vsNYYNYY6.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(1-2)
4/23vsPITPIT5.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
CHCCHC3L · 5R · 1S
  1. 1

    N. Hoerner

    2B · #2

    R
  2. 2

    M. Conforto

    DH · #20

    L
  3. 3

    A. Bregman

    3B · #3

    R
  4. 4

    I. Happ

    LF · #8

    B
  5. 5

    S. Suzuki

    RF · #27

    R
  6. 6

    M. Busch

    1B · #29

    L
  7. 7

    C. Kelly

    C · #15

    R
  8. 8

    P. Crow-Armstrong

    CF · #4

    L
  9. 9

    D. Swanson

    SS · #7

    R
TEXTEX5L · 4R
  1. 1

    B. Nimmo

    RF · #24

    L
  2. 2

    E. Duran

    2B · #20

    R
  3. 3

    C. Seager

    SS · #5

    L
  4. 4

    J. Jung

    3B · #6

    R
  5. 5

    E. Carter

    CF · #32

    L
  6. 6

    J. Pederson

    DH · #3

    L
  7. 7

    A. Osuna

    LF · #19

    L
  8. 8

    K. Higashioka

    C · #11

    R
  9. 9

    J. Foscue

    1B · #14

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 5th
Game flowCHC ↔ TEX

Recent swing: 10pp · Bottom 4th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 3 : Strike 2 Foul

CHCCHC
M. Conforto

M. Conforto

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 8 ER

TEXTEX
J. Jung

J. Jung

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 5 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 9 K · 0 ER

How it's going

TEX lead CHC 5-0 (Bot 5th).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 56% WP

Jung · homered to right center (389 feet).

CHCTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 41% WP

Conforto · walked.

TEXBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+10pp→ 84% WP

Pederson · doubled to left, Carter scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
CHC000000
TEX020215

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

0

Runs

5

3

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

5

TB

14

0

HR

2

5

BB

1

7

K

4

20

LOB

6

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8·CHC -130/TEX +108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

TEX vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5
CHC0
TEX5

Period scoring

CHC won 0 · TEX won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Jung 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Pederson 1

0
1

Inn 5

Foscue 1

CHC
TEX

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period
event
player
  1. B5

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  2. B5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  3. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  4. B5

    Edward Cabrera pitches to Ezequiel Duran

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  5. B5

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  6. B5

    Nimmo grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  7. B5

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  8. B5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  9. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  10. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  11. B5

    Edward Cabrera pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  12. B5

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  13. B5

    Foscue homered to left (358 feet).

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

    +3pp

  14. B5

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  15. B5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  16. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  17. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  18. B5

    Edward Cabrera pitches to Justin Foscue

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 5

  19. B5

    Bottom of the 5th inning

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  20. M5

    Middle of the 5th inning

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  21. T5

    · ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  22. T5

    Busch struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

    +2pp

  23. T5

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  24. T5

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  25. T5

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  26. T5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  27. T5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  28. T5

    Jalen Beeks pitches to Michael Busch

    · ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  29. T5

    Beeks relieved Leiter

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

  30. T5

    ·

    CHC 0·TEX 4

Live · 11
  • MLBBot 5
    STL 1@SD 1
    +2.9pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    MIN 1@CLE 0
    -42.6ppmedium
  • MLBTop 6
    NYM 1@ARI 2
    +28.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 6
    NYY 2@MIL 0
    -45.8pplow
  • MLBBot 5
    SEA 1@CHW 4
    +54.3pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    COL 3@PHI 7
    +33.5pplow
  • MLBBot 5
    CHC 0@TEX 5
    +57.7pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    DET 0@KC 5
    +43.2pplow
  • NBA7:53 - 1st
    OKC 10@LAL 10
    -0.4ppmedium
  • WNBA58.4 - 2nd
    ATL 33@MIN 51
  • NHLEnd of 3rd
    CAR 2@PHI 2

Player projections

TEX vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.7± 3.2low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.6± 4.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    6.1± 3.8low

Hits

  • Josh JungTEX
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    2.1± 2.1high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    2.0± 1.6high
  • Ian HappCHC
    1.9± 3.1high

RBIs

  • Michael BuschCHC
    1.0± 1.5high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.3± 2.0low
  • MacKenzie GoreTEX
    2.9± 2.2low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    41.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.7%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.5%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 64-36
59%Last 30 · 252-178
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